The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and Economic Research Service expect US total per capita red meat and poultry consumption this year to be about 218.11 pounds with year-on-year gains in all major meat categories.
The data was gathered from the two agencies and compiled by the Livestock Marketing Information Center. It showed that USDA economists expected per capita red meat and poultry consumption this year to be up from 215.20 pounds in 2017, a gain of 2.91 pounds, or 1.35%.
The data showed that per capita beef consumption this year was forecast at 58.14 pounds, up 1.29 pounds, or 2.27%, from 56.85 pounds in 2017.
Total per capita pork consumption in 2018 was seen at 51.20 pounds, versus 50.06 pounds last year, a gain of 1.14 pounds, or 2.28%.
Chicken consumption was expected at 92.28 pounds per person, a gain of 0.17 pound, or 0.18%, over the 2017 total of 92.11 pounds.
Total turkey consumption was forecast at 16.49 pounds per consumer, up 0.31 pound, or 1.92%, from 16.18 pounds last year.
2019 FORECAST LOWER
However, total per capita red meat and poultry consumption was forecast lower in 2019 at 217.98 pounds, a decline of 0.13 pound, or 0.06%. The forecast decline was in chicken and turkey consumption. Beef and pork consumption were forecast to continue growing.
Annual per capita beef consumption next year was put at 58.51 pounds, a gain of 0.37 pound, or 0.64%, from 2018’s forecast of 58.14 pounds.
2019 per capita pork consumption was expected to be 51.98 pounds, up 0.78 pound, or 1.52%, from 2018’s forecast of 51.20 pounds.
Per capita chicken consumption next year was placed at 91.21 pounds, down 1.07 pounds, or 1.16%, from this year’s estimate of 92.28 pounds.
Turkey consumption next year was estimated at 16.29 pounds per person, compared with this year’s 16.49 pounds, a decline of 0.20 pound, or 1.21%.
POULTRY/RED MEAT CONSUMPTION SPREAD WIDE
It could be seen as a natural thing for poultry consumption next year to decline as beef and pork consumption inches higher. The spread between poultry and red meat consumption has been widening, generally, since about 1997.
Chicken’s versatility and low comparative cost to beef or pork make it seem likely that the red meat/poultry consumption spread will continue widening, a market analyst said. Red meats may have topped out in the ways it can be served while chicken just keeps reinventing itself.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
On the Livestock Exchange Video Auction Wednesday, 161 head sold for 1- through 9-day delivery at $122 per cwt, and 338 sold for 1- through 17-day delivery at $120.
Last Wednesday, 232 head of Nebraska cattle sold at $118 per cwt; 127 Kansas cattle sold at $117.59, and 59 head of Texas cattle sold at $114 with a 17- to 30-day delivery window.
Early week cash cattle last week were at $117 to $118 per cwt on a live basis, the top of last week’s $115 to $118 trade. On Friday, they were up to $118 to $120 in Kansas and $121 to $122 in Nebraska. Dressed-basis trading was at $190, steady to down $2 from the previous week.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $0.49 per cwt at $211.64, while select was off $1.01 at $198.57. The choice/select spread widened to $13.07 from $12.55 with 136 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Tuesday, was $137.90 per cwt, up $0.15. This compares with Wednesday’s Apr settlement of $138.75, up $0.02.