US beef trade continued its impressive performance of recent months in the latest monthly trade data for August, said Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Derrell Peel in a letter to Extension agents called Cow/Calf Corner.
Total monthly US beef exports were up 9.0% with a year to date total up 14.2% year over year, Peel said.
For the year to date, Japan has a 28.8% share of US beef exports followed by South Korea at 20.6%, he said. Number three market Mexico has a year-to-date share of 14.1% followed by Canada at 9.7% and Hong Kong at 8.9%. Taiwan accounted for 5.7% of total beef exports.
Fledgling US beef exports to China have faltered with the trade war, Peel said. US beef exports to China in August were down from the prior month and represented 0.47% of August US beef exports. Monthly beef exports to China have decreased 47.5% since the pre-tariff May peak.
Total US beef imports were down 3.4% year over year in August and were unchanged for the year so far in 2018, he said.
Canada represented the largest share of 2018 year-to-date US beef imports at 24.9%, followed by New Zealand with a 23.3% share, Australia with a 21.4% share and Mexico at 16.2%.
TRADE ESTIMATES
USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service released its bi-annual Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report last week with 2019 forecasts for beef production, consumption and trade among major global participants in those markets. Overall, global beef production was forecast to increase slightly, while beef exports were seen essentially unchanged, Peel said.
Beef imports among major importing countries were forecast to increase 3% to 4% in 2019, he said. The top five beef producing countries are the US, Brazil, European Union, China and India.
Major beef exporting countries include Brazil at number one followed by India, Australia, the US and New Zealand. The US remains the top beef importing country, followed by China, Japan, Hong Kong and South Korea.
Brazil beef exports were projected to increase nearly 5% year over year in 2019, putting Brazil solidly back on top as the leading global beef exporting country, Peel said.
Meanwhile, India, which exceeded Brazil as the largest beef exporter in 2014-2016, declined in 2018 and is projected to decline again in 2019, he said. Australia, which has struggled to recover from earlier drought, is in drought once again and is forecast to see year-over-year declines in beef exports in 2019.
US beef exports were forecast to show modest growth in 2019.
US beef imports have changed little since 2016 though USDA forecasted a slight increase in 2019, Peel said.
Other analysts forecast little change or even a slight decline in US beef imports next year, he said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Cattle sales last week were reported at $110 to $111 per cwt, steady to $1 lower than the previous week. Dressed sales were reported at $173 to $174 per cwt, steady to down $1.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $2.09 per cwt at $204.80, while select was down $0.39 at $191.89. The choice/select spread widened to $12.91 from $10.43 with 85 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
There were eight steer delivery notices Monday and no heifers at zero. There also were 26 steer retenders at one and one demand for steers at one. There also was one reclaim of steers at one.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Friday, was $156.26 per cwt, down $1.22. This compares with Monday’s Oct settlement of $155.07, up $0.40.