Canada’s cattle feedlot population rose a bit as of Oct. 1 from a month earlier, right on schedule seasonally and holding at more than a year earlier and the previous five-year average for Oct. 1.
Canada’s Cattle on Feed report is generated by CanFax, a private market advisory group with data from feedlots in Alberta and Saskatchewan and is published by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver. However, the LMIC only publishes the total on feed and the number of placements each month.
ON-FEED NUMBERS UP
The number of cattle populating Canadian feedlots at the beginning of the month was 792,358 head, the LMIC said. This was up 19,469, or 2.52%, from 772,889 a month earlier and was up 68,203, or 9.42%, from 724,155 a year earlier. It also was up 118,085, or 17,5%, from the 2014-2018 average of 674,273 head.
Canada’s number of cattle on feed bottomed in September, right on schedule seasonally. October usually shows an increase, but the increase is not as great as the Nov. 1 and Dec. 1 increases.
Seasonalities in Canada don’t vary much since the seasons show such stark differences. Everything happens pretty much by the calendar.
Dec. 1 will show the largest feedlot populations of the year, and there will be a drop to Jan. 1. From there, the numbers decline to a Feb. 1 seasonal low, followed by a slight rise to April 1 and then a slide into the Sep. 1 low.
CATTLE ON FEED LONGER
By looking at the rate of feedlot placements and the number of cattle on feed, it is easy to see that cattle are spending more time on feed there than they were last year or in the period from 2014 through 2018.
Feedlot placements in September totaled 216,086 head, up 107,889, or 99.7%, from 108,197 in August and up 4,540, or 2.15%, from 211,546 a year earlier. It also was up 5,599, or 2.66%, from the 2014-2018 average of 210,487 head.
Those appear to be big differences, but when graphed, they really are not. This year’s placement line follows almost exactly on the seasonal average and 2019 lines. The biggest differences came in March and April when placements were lower and in July when they were larger.
From here, placements can be expected to rose in October to the annual high and then drop off through December or January. Last year, placements in October and November were unusually large.
A seasonal peak in placements usually comes in March, which is followed by the annual low in July.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle trading this week was seen at $104 to $106 per cwt on a live basis, down $3 from last week. Dressed-basis trading was reported at $165 to $166 per cwt, down $3 to $4.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $2.13 per cwt at $208.47, while select was off $0.76 at $190.91. The choice/select spread narrowed to $17.57 from $18.93 with 138 loads of fabricated product and 69 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Wednesday that basis bids from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.15 to $1.21 per bushel over the Dec CME futures contract, which settled at $4.13 ¾ a bushel.
There were no delivery notices against the Oct live cattle futures market Wednesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $138.36 per cwt, down $0.30. This compares with Wednesday’s Oct contract settlement of $134.40 per cwt, down $0.10.