The US cattle herd on Jan. 1 declined by 391,400 head, or 0.41%, to 94.413 million from 94.805 million a year earlier, the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service said in its semi-annual Cattle (Inventory) report on Friday.
That amount of decline is almost insignificant in the total scope of things, a market analyst said, but it is instructive to see what else the report had to say about the US cattle herd.
CALF POTENTIAL DECLINES
Along with last year’s increase in cow and heifer slaughter comes a realization that this year’s, and next year’s calf crops could be lower, the analyst said. There won’t be a sudden drop in calf numbers because the life span of cattle is such that it takes years to turn the direction of herd growth from positive to negative.
NASS lumps heifers weighing less than 500 pounds into a category called “calves under 500 pounds,” so it’s difficult to tell much about what the complexion of the herd will look like in the intermediate future, the analyst said.
In fact, the total number of heifers weighing 500 pounds or more increased, but they were in the “other heifers” category, signaling they were not in a place to replace cows in either beef or dairy herds. They were destined, or already in, feedlots.
The number of other heifers weighing 500 pounds or more came to 9.706 million head, up 80,900, or 0.85%, from 9.624 million a year earlier.
However, the number of beef heifers kept for replacement in the breeding herd came to 5.772 million head, down 113,000, or 1.92%, from 5.885 million a year ago. Of these, 3.499 million were expected to calve this year, down 29,500, or 0.84%, from 3.529 million a year ago.
Additionally, there were 31.317 million beef cows already in the herd as of Jan. 1, down 374,000, or 1.18%, from 31.691 million a year ago.
As on Jan. 1, there were 4.637 million dairy heifers weighing more than 500 pounds destined to be replacements for culled cows, down 64,500, or 1.37%, from 4.702 million a year ago. Of these, 2.931 million were expected to calve this year, down 74,300, or 2.47%, from 3.006 million a year ago.
A total of 9.335 million cows already populated the dairy cow herd as of Jan. 1, down 18,800, or 0.20%, from 90.353 million a year earlier.
CALF CROP DECLINES
The number of calves born last year came to 36.060 million head down 253,100, or 0.70%, from 36.313 million in 2018.
Calves born during the first half of 2019 were estimated at 26.4 million head, down slightly from the first half of 2018. Calves born in the second half of 2019 were estimated at 90.761 million head, 27% of the total 2019 calf crop.
The total number of calves grazing small grain pasture in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas came to 1.610 million head down 15.3%.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Cash cattle trading was reported in the Plains last week at $122 to $122.50 per cwt on a live basis, down $1 to $4.50 from the previous week. A few dressed-basis trades were reported at $194 per cwt, down $4 to $5.50.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was down $0.35 per cwt at $213.00, while select was down $0.82 at $210.66. The choice/select spread widened to $12.34 from $1.87 with 50 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Thursday was $142.38 per cwt, down $0.50. This compares with Friday’s Mar contract settlement of $136.07, up $0.42.