Friday’s semi-annual Cattle (inventory) report confirmed evidence from USDA reports and anecdotal reports from the field, namely that the US cattle herd is contracting rapidly.
Friday’s Cattle report showed a total inventory of 98.8 million head, down 2.0 million, or 1.98%, from 100.8 million in the mid-year report from 2021. Greg Henderson, from AgWeb, said it was the lowest mid-year inventory since 2015.
ALL COW NUMBERS DOWN
The number of cows and heifers that have calved totaled 39.8 million head, down 800,000, or 1.97%, from 40.6 million a year earlier.
Of that, 30.35 million were beef cows or heifers, down 750,000, or 2.4%, from 31.10 million as of July 1, 2021. Another 9.45 million were dairy cows or heifers, down 50,000, or 0.53%, from 9.50 million last year.
Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist, said in a letter to Extension agents before the report that beef cow slaughter was up 14.6% over the first half of this year, versus the same period last year. This followed a 9% increase in 2021 over 2020.
Plus, first-half fed cattle kill was up 0.6% over last year with steer kill down 1.4% and heifer slaughter up 3.8%, Peel said.
REPLACEMENT HEIFER NUMBERS DOWN
Total replacement heifer numbers were down as well. This number often is taken with a measure of skepticism because it counts heifers weighing 500 pounds or more as possible replacement heifers, but calves can be placed on feed up to about 1,000 pounds. So, if weather or economic conditions worsen, many of these heifers could be redirected to the feedlots.
Heifers 500 pounds and over for beef replacement totaled 4.15 million head, down 150,000, or 3.49%, from 4.30 million from a year ago. Dairy replacement heifers in this weight grouping totaled 3.75 million head, down 50,000, or 1.32%, from 3.80 last year.
Other heifers weighing 500 pounds or more, the ones specifically targeted for the feedlots, totaled 7.7 million head, down 100,000, or 1.28%, from 7.8 million at this time last year.
MALES ALSO LOWER
The number of males in the survey were steady to lower than a year ago.
Steers weighing 500 pounds or more totaled 14.4 million head, down 200,000, or 1.37%, from 14.6 million in the year-ago report. Bulls weighing more than 500 pounds and which are pointed at replacement livestock, numbered a steady 2.0 million head.
Calves weighing less than 500 pounds, at 27.0 million head, were down 700,000, or 2.53%, from last year’s 27.7 million.
This year’s calf crop was pegged at 34.6 million head, down 485,000, or 1.38%, from 35.085 million last year.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $137.00 to $145.16 per cwt, compared with the previous week’s range of $136.51 to $149.83. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $216.89 to $220.37 per cwt, versus $217.59 to $224.24.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was down $0.64 per cwt at $267.12, while select was up $1.97 at $242.50. The choice/select spread narrowed to $24.62 from $27.23 with 70 loads of fabricated product and 24 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $2.70 to $2.80 a bushel over the Sep futures and for southwest Kansas were steady at $0.10 under Sep, which settled at $5.64 1/4, down $0.11 1/2.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $171.01 per cwt up $0.34. This compares with Friday’s Aug contract settlement of $181.55, up $3.27.