The last two Cattle on Feed reports by the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service have shown rather large placements of animals on feed relative to a year earlier, according to the Livestock Marketing Information Center’s newsletter to Extension staff called Livestock Monitor.
In July and August, the number placed on feed was the largest in more than five years for these months, the LMIC said. Further, larger placements were posted in the less-than-600-pound weight group and the 600-to-699-pound category.
In July, the number of placements weighing less than 600 pounds was up 14% year-over-year, while 600- to 699-pound calves increased by 23%, the LMIC said. In August, these categories were 19% and 18% above 2017.
A calculated seasonal index over the last 20 years shows a pattern for both weight categories in that October has the highest volume, the LMIC said.
LIGHT-WEIGHT INDEX NUMBERS UP
Indexes are relative to the annual average, so a value of 1.5 is 50% above average for the month. The national 20-year index puts less-than-600-pound calves going into feedlots at a value of 1.72 for October compared with the second highest in November of 1.35. Values for August through December all are larger than 1.0, meaning larger than the annual average. Index values from January through July were less than 1.0, ranging from 0.90 in July to 0.71 in February.
The 5- and 10-year seasonal index values are larger in the January-through-July timeframe and show lower August-through-November values, the LMIC said. December indexes are higher, compared with the 20-year December index value, the LMIC said. This implies seasonality is less pronounced in these shorter year-length timeframes, although the differences are rather small.
HEAVY-WEIGHT SEASONAL INDEX HIGHER
Monthly placed index values for 600- to 699-pound calves have a slightly different pattern. Values greater than 1.0 were calculated in the 20-year seasonal index for September through December and January. October was again the highest, at 1.57 (indicating placements for that weight group were 57% higher than the average), the LMIC said. The lowest value calculated was April, at 0.68, the LMIC said. February through August values all calculated below 1 with the largest August index value at 0.93.
Fluctuations between the 10-year and 20-year seasonal index are very small, the LMIC said. However, the 5-year seasonal index shows changes in the April index value moving to 0.74, and in July and August index values were much smaller. This does not seem to be the case this year as July and August placements for this weight category were significantly higher.
During the year, the weights of feedlot placements are quite different, and there are differences by region. Year-to-year comparisons can be influenced by forage conditions and economics.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Light cash cattle trading was reported this week in the Plains at $110.50 to $111 per cwt on a live basis, steady to up $0.50 from last week. On a dressed basis, light activity was reported at $174, steady with the upper end of last week’s range.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $0.05 per cwt at $204.56, while select was off $1.36 at $191.19. The choice/select spread widened to $13.37 from $12.60 with 118 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
There were no delivery notices Wednesday at zero. There was one steer retender at one and no demands or reclaims.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Tuesday, was $155.14 per cwt, down $0.22. This compares with Wednesday’s Oct settlement of $154.07, up $0.05.