Weekly federally inspected dressed steer weights show signs of topping as the difference between this year, last year and the 2014-2018 average continue to narrow.
Dressed heifer weights continue to climb and show fewer signs of topping, but the differences between this year, last year and the previous five-year average are narrowing more rapidly than dressed steer weights.
BY THE NUMBERS
The difference between this year’s and last year’s weekly federally inspected steer carcass weights reached its zenith the last two weeks of May at 52 pounds, according to USDA Agricultural Marketing Service and National Agricultural Statistics Service numbers compiled by the Livestock Marketing Information Center.
The weekly difference with the five-year average peaked this year at 51.4 pounds the third week of May.
The spread between this year and last year the first week of October was 25 pounds and 17.4 pounds with the previous five-year average.
The differences between this year’s and last year’s weekly federally inspected heifer carcass weights reached its widest point at 47 pounds the first week of June. The widest point with the 2014-2018 average came the third week of May at 48.6 pounds.
The weekly difference in steer and heifer weights with last year and the previous five-year average the first week of October was 25 and 17.4 pounds, respectively.
WHERE IT’S GOING
Dressed steer weights usually peak around the second week of November. The 2014-2018 average has this peak at 910.4 pounds.
Last year, the peak came right on time at 912 pounds.
This year, the weekly average dressed steer weights have been the same for the last week of September and the first week of October at 924 pounds.
That would be about a month early for an annual top, but within a reasonable difference, a market analyst said. Besides, carcass weights have been above last year and the previous five-year average all year, and the differences are narrowing, so an early peak followed by a chase to the seasonal low in December also would be reasonable.
Weekly heifer carcass weights are a little different. The 2014-2015 average annual high comes the fourth week of November. The 2014-2018 high was 840.6 pounds.
Last year’s weekly high heifer carcass weight was 842 pounds, and it came in the same week.
The big difference is in the rapid narrowing of the weight gap between this year, last year and the previous five-year average, along with the latest week-to-week trend toward higher weights.
The latest trend has the line pointed higher, indicating the peak is not close. An on-time high might make for a whole year of heavier heifer carcass weights.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle trading this week was seen at $105 to $106 per cwt on a live basis, down $2 to $3 from last week. Dressed-basis trading was reported last week at $169 per cwt, up $2 to down $1.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was down $0.29 per cwt at $209.74, while select was off $1.68 at $191.84. The choice/select spread widened to $17.90 from $16.51 with 83 loads of fabricated product and 32 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
CME Group data combined with USDA information, compiled by the Livestock Marketing Information Center yields a weekly corn basis for the Texas Triangle last Thursday of $0.36 over the Dec futures contract.
There were no delivery notices against the Oct live cattle futures market Monday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $140.26 per cwt, up $0.04. This compares with Monday’s Oct contract settlement of $134.60 per cwt, down $3.50.