Total US red meat and poultry production has a good chance of continuing to expand through 2019, said the Denver, Col.-based Livestock Marketing Information Center.
Taking off from USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service data, the LMIC projected beef, pork, poultry and even lamb and mutton production on a quarterly basis through 2019. With few exceptions, each quarter’s production estimates eclipse the same quarter in the prior year.
TOTAL PRODUCTION CHARTED HIGHER
Total red meat and poultry production for the first quarter of this year was placed at 24.517 billion pounds, up 1.587 billion, or 6.92%, from the 2012-2016 average of 22.930 billion.
Total red meat and poultry production in the first quarter of 2018 was projected to be 24.786 billion pounds, up 269 million, or 1.10%, from the first quarter of this year. First-quarter 2019 production was estimated to be up another 246 billion pounds, or 0.99%, at 25.032 billion.
However, second-quarter 2017 total meat and poultry production declined slightly from the first quarter to 24.502 billion pounds, a dip of 15 million, or 0.06%, from the first quarter. Still, this was up 1.271 billion pounds, or 5.47%, from the previous five-year average of 23.231 billion.
Total meat and poultry production for the second quarter of next year was pegged at 25.237 billion pounds, up 451 million, or 1.82%, from the first quarter and up 2.006 billion, or 8.64%, from the 2012-1016 average of 23.231 billion.
FORECASTS CONTINUE HIGHER
Third-quarter 2017 meat and poultry production was put at 25.061 billion pounds, up 559 million, or 2.28%, from the second quarter’s 24.502 billion and up 1.470 billion, or 6.23%, from the five-year average of 23.591 billion.
For 2018, third-quarter meat and poultry production was projected to be 25.802 billion pounds, up 1.565 billion, or 6.46%, from 24.237 billion in the second quarter and up 2.211 billion, or 9.37%, from the five-year average.
Fourth-quarter 2017 meat and poultry production was projected at 25.553 billion pounds, up 492 million, or 1.96%, from the third quarter and up 1.555 billion, or 6.48%, from the 2012-2016 average of 23.998 billion.
For 2018, fourth-quarter red meat and poultry production was estimated at 26.415 billion pounds, up 613 million, or 2.38%, from the third quarter and up 2.417 billion, or 10.07%, from the five-year average of 23.998 billion.
Projected red meat and poultry production for 2019 continues higher for each quarter, finally capping at 26.872 billion pounds in fourth-quarter 2019.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Cash cattle trading began this week at scattered feed yards at $118 per cwt on a live basis Tuesday, down $1 from the bulk of last week’s action. However, packer bids had come up to $120 to $120.50 in parts of western Nebraska by mid-afternoon.
About 617 head of fed cattle sold on the Livestock Exchange video auction last Wednesday at $119.21 and $119.25 per cwt, down about $4.75 from a week earlier.
Cash trade last week was at mostly $119 per cwt on a live basis, down about $5 from the previous week. Dressed-basis trade was reported at $188 to $190 per cwt, down $1 to $4.
The USDA’s choice cutout Tuesday was up $2.45 per cwt at $208.63, while select was up $0.60 at $188.65. The choice/select spread widened to $19.98 from $18.13 with 136 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Monday was $156.71 per cwt, down $0.18. This compares with Tuesday’s Nov settlement at $151.62 per cwt, up $2.07.