The US hog herd continues to grow, a fact that concerns cattle producers and feeders as the extra meat must find a home, potentially undermining beef values.
The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service last week released its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, which revealed that the US inventory of all hogs and pigs on Dec. 1 was 74.550 million head, up 1.405 million, or 1.92%, from 73.145 million a year earlier. The herd was down 0.52% from 74.941 million on Sep. 1, but many saw this as a short-term trend, preferring to focus on the year-to-year comparisons.
The breeding herd on Dec. 1 numbered 6.326 million head, up 147,000, or 2.38%, from 6.179 million a year earlier. However, the breeding herd was down slightly from 6.330 million on Sep. 1.
MARKET HOG INVENTORY UP
The total market hog inventory, at 68.225 million head, was up 1.259 million, or 1.88%, from 66.966 million a year earlier. For comparison, the new number was down slightly from 68.611 million in the previous quarter.
Broken down, that means there were 21.599 million head of pigs weighing less than 50 pounds on Dec. 1, 192,000, or 0.90%, more than the 21.407 million a year earlier. Pigs weighing 50 to 119 pounds totaled 18.932 million, up 388,000, or 2.09%, from 18.544 a year earlier.
Hogs weighing 120 to 179 pounds came to 14.412 million head, up 487,000, or 3.50%, from 13.925 million a year ago, and those weighing 180 pounds or more came to 13.282 million head, up 193,000, or 1.47%, from 13.089 million.
PIG CROP RISES
During the September-through-November period, producers farrowed 3.158 million sows for a total pig crop of 33.978 million. This was a gain of 55,000 sows from 3.103 million in the year-earlier quarter, or 1.77%. The baby pig count was up 650,000, or 1.95%.
Pigs per litter in the September-through-November period averaged 10.76, up from 10.74 a year earlier.
Producers indicated they intended to farrow 3.110 million sows in the December-through-February quarter, compared with 3.034 million in the period from December 2017 through February 2018, a gain of 76,000, or 2.50%.
Farrowing intentions for the March-through-May quarter came to 3.147 million head, up 47,000, or 1.52%, from 3.100 million in the 2018 quarter.
If pigs per litter hold constant, US producers will have a December-through-February pig crop of 32.904 million head, a gain of 803,000, or 2.50%, from 32.101 million a year earlier. The March-through-May pig crop would be 33.453 million head, up 511,000, or 1.55%, from 32.942 million in this year’s quarter.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Cash cattle traded last week at $119 per cwt on a live basis, steady with the previous week, and at $190 dressed in eastern Nebraska, up $2.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $1.64 per cwt at $215.69, while select was up $0.10 at $207.60. The choice/select spread widened to $8.09 from $6.55 with 104 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
No delivery notices were served for Dec live cattle.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Tuesday, was $147.71 per cwt, up $0.05. This compares with Wednesday’s Jan settlement of $148.10, up $0.72.