USDA Lowers Red Meat, Poultry Production Outlook

The USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Friday lowered its forecast 2020 total red meat and poultry production from last month as lower pork and broiler production more than offsets higher beef and turkey production.

For 2021, the total red meat and poultry forecast was reduced from the August report on lower expected beef, pork and broiler production.




The 2020 beef production estimate was raised 20 million pounds, or 0.07%, to 27.048 billion pounds from 27.028 million in the August report on forecasts for higher second-half cattle slaughter.

The 2021 beef production forecast was reduced 265 million pounds, or 0.97%, to 27.355 billion pounds from 27.620 billion last month on lower expected steer and heifer slaughter and lighter carcass weights.

The 2020 beef import forecast was raised 135 million pounds, or 4.13%, to 3.272 billion pounds from 3.137 billion on continued firm buying interest for processing grade beef, while the beef export forecast was left unchanged at 2.896 billion.

No change was made to the 2021 beef trade forecasts of 2.045 billion pounds imported ant 3.140 billion exported.




The 2020 pork production forecast was reduced on the current pace of slaughter and lighter carcass weights.  The new production estimate was 28.237 billion pounds, down 120 million, or 0.42%, from 28.357 billion in the August report.

The 2021 pork production estimate also was reduced 120 million pounds, or 0.42%, to 28.445 billion pounds from 28.565 billion last month on lighter expected carcass weights.

The 2020 and 2021 pork export forecasts were left unchanged at 7.547 billion pounds and 7.650 billion, respectively, as continued demand strength from China offsets weaker demand in other key markets.

The 2020 and 2021 pork import forecasts also were left unchanged at 861 million pounds and 895 million, respectively.




The 2020 broiler production estimate was reduced 116 million pounds, or 0.26%, to 44.552 billion pounds from 44.668 billion on recent hatchery data while the turkey production estimate was raised slightly to 5.708 billion pounds.

The 2021 broiler production forecast was reduced 255 million pounds, or 0.56%, to 45.020 billion pounds from 45.275 billion on slower expected growth as the industry adjusts to higher feed costs.

The 2021 turkey production forecast was unchanged at 5.770 billion pounds.

The 2020 and 2021 broiler and turkey export forecasts were left unchanged from last month.  The 2020 broiler import forecast was 135 million pounds, while the 2021 import forecast was 132 million.  The 2020 broiler export forecast was 7.186 billion pounds, and the 2021 forecast was 7.140 billion.

The 2020 turkey import forecast was raised to 19 million pounds from 15 million a month ago, while the 2021 turkey import forecast was left unchanged at 12 million.  The 2020 and 2021 turkey export forecasts were left unchanged at 540 million and 555 million, respectively.




Fed cattle trading last week was reported in the Plains at $101 to mostly $102 per cwt on a live basis, down $1 to $2 from the previous week.  Dressed-basis trading was seen at $160 to $161 per cwt, down $2 to $3.

The USDA choice cutout Friday was down $0.94 per cwt at $219.89, while select was off $0.22 at $207.10.  The choice/select spread narrowed to $12.79 from $13.51 with 95 loads of fabricated product and 69 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was at $140.99 per cwt, down $0.11.  This compares with Friday’s Sep contract settlement of $140.00 per cwt, up $0.82.