The USDA’s World Agricultural Outlook Board raised its forecast for 2019 total red meat and poultry production from October on higher beef, pork, broiler and turkey production.
The new figures came in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Friday.
2019 PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UP
In the report, the 2019 beef production estimate was raised 88 million pounds, or 0.33%, to 27.036 billion from 26.948 billion in the October report on higher expected slaughter of fed and non-fed cattle.
The 2019 pork production forecast was raised 42 million pounds, or 0.15%, to 27.620 billion from 27.578 billion on higher hog slaughter and slightly higher carcass weights.
The 2019 broiler production forecast was raised to 43.738 billion pounds from 43.667 billion, a gain of 71 million, or 0.16%, as hatchery data pointed to larger supplies of slaughter-ready birds in the fourth quarter.
2020 PRODUCTION ESTIMATE ALSO UP
For 2020, the total red meat and poultry production forecast was increased from last month as higher broiler and turkey production estimates more than offset a lower beef production forecast.
The 2020 beef production forecast went to 27.550 billion pounds, down 120 million, or 0.43%, from the October estimate of 27.670 billion on a slower expected pace of gains in carcass weights. A slightly slower pace of feedlot marketings also contributed to the reduced production forecast.
Next year’s pork production forecast was left unchanged at 28.680 billion pounds.
The broiler production forecast was raised to 44.536 billion pounds from 44.385 billion as the increase in production late this year was expected to carry into late 2020.
RED MEAT TRADE ADJUSTED
Beef and pork trade estimates for 2019 were adjusted to reflect reported third-quarter data; the forecasts for the fourth-quarter 2019 and for 2020 were unchanged from last month.
The new 2019 beef export projection was 2.960 billion pounds, down from 3.030 billion in the October report; beef imports were forecast at 3.104 billion pounds, versus 3.126 billion.
The new 2019 pork import forecast was placed at 958 million pounds, up from October’s 956 million, and the export forecast was pegged at 6.496 billion, compared with 6.580 billion.
The 2019 broiler export forecast was lowered to 7.040 billion pounds from October’s 7.111 billion as weaker-than-expected third quarter exports further dampened expectations for fourth-quarter shipments; no change was made to the 2020 forecast of 76.250 billion pounds.
CATTLE PRICE FORECAST RAISED, HOGS TRIMMED
The fed steer price forecast was raised for fourth-quarter 2019 to $112 based on recent data per cwt, bringing the annual outlook to $116 from $115.50; no change was made to the 2020 forecast of $116.
The 2019 and 2020 hog price forecasts were reduced on current price weakness to $48 and $57 per cwt, respectively.
The 2019 broiler price forecast was raised from the previous month on current prices. The price strength was carried into early 2020, but increased production in the later part of 2020 was expected to pressure prices; the 2020 annual price forecast was unchanged.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Cash cattle trading last week took place late at $114 to $116 per cwt on a live basis, up $2, while dressed-basis trading ranged from $181 to $182 per cwt, up $1 to $2.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was down $0.53 per cwt at $238.59, while select was up $0.43 at $213.69. The choice/select spread narrowed to $24.90 from $25.86 with 55 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Friday was $146.52 per cwt, up $0.68 from the previous day. This compares with Monday’s Nov contract settlement of $147.57, up $0.57.