USDA Raises Meat, Poultry Production Forecast

The USDA’s latest forecast for 2021 US red meat and poultry production was raised from last month as higher forecasts for beef, broiler and turkey production more than offset lower pork production estimates.

The new predictions came in the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Thursday.

The 2022 red meat and poultry production forecast was little changed from last month with only a slight increase in turkey production from expected gains in turkey prices.




The increase in estimated 2021 beef production was small, going to 27.905 billion pounds from 27.900 billion in last month’s report, as most of an expected increase in cow slaughter was offset by lower steer and heifer slaughter production forecasts.

The 2022 beef production forecast was left unchanged from a month at 27.335 billion pounds.

However, 2021 and 2022 production estimates surpass 2020’s 27.174 billion pounds.

The 2021 and 2022 beef import forecasts were raised on expected strength in demand for processing beef.  This year’s import forecast rose to 3.021 billion pounds from 2.961 billion a month ago, while the 2022 forecast went to 2.990 billion pounds from 2.950 billion.

Export estimates for both years were raised on expected firm demand from Asian markets.  The new 2021 beef export forecast was 3.342 billion pounds, compared with 3.227 billion a month earlier, and the 2022 beef export forecast was 3.300 billion pounds, compared with 3.225 billion.




Estimated 2021 pork production was lowered to 28.191 billion pounds from 28.221 billion a month ago as higher expected slaughter was more than offset by lower carcass weights.

2022’s pork production estimate was left unchanged at 28.545 billion pounds.

Pork export forecasts for 2021 and 2022 were raised from the previous month as demand in several markets has strengthened.  The new pork export estimate for 2021 was 7.552 billion pounds, compared with 7.427 billion in the May report, while the new 2022 pork export estimate was 7.550 billion pounds, up from 7.425 billion.

The 2021 pork import forecast was raised to 982,000 pounds from 967,000 a month ago, while the 2022 import estimate was left unchanged at 990,000 pounds.




The 2021 broiler production forecast was raised to 44.893 billion pounds from 44.765 billion last month primarily on higher expected second-quarter production.  The 2022 production estimate was left unchanged at 45.300 billion pounds.

Broiler export forecasts for 2021 were raised to 7.399 billion pounds from 7.354 billion in May on recent trade data, but no change was made to the 2022 estimate of 7.450 billion.  2021 imports were seen at 135,000 pounds vs 131,000.




Fed cattle traded this week at $119 to $120.50 per cwt on a live basis, down $0.50 to up $0.50 from last week.  Dressed-basis trading was at $189 to $191, steady to down $1.

The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $0.40 per cwt at $338.25, while select was up $2.53 at $310.40.  The choice/select spread narrowed to $27.85 from $30.78 with 78 loads of fabricated product and 32 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The USDA reported Thursday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.00 to $1.07 a bushel over the Jul futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $0.70 over Jul, which settled at $6.99 a bushel, up $0.08 1/4.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $139.91 per cwt down $0.13.  This compares with Thursday’s Aug contract settlement of $148.40 per cwt, up $0.12.