USDA production forecasts for 2019 call for increases in beef, pork, broilers, turkeys, eggs and milk, said the USDA’s monthly Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook Wednesday.
Specifically, beef production was forecast to climb 1.8%; pork production could climb 3.1%; broilers were expected to rise by 2.3%; turkeys could be up 0.9%; eggs were seen up 2.1%, and milk production was forecast to be up 1.3%.
Veal production was expected to decrease 2.1%, while no growth was projected for lamb.
Forecasts for 2019 beef and turkey production were projected to exceed the 2014-2018 averages of 1.2% and 0.4%, respectively, the USDA said. Pork, broiler and egg production were expected to be about on pace with 5-year average of 3%, 2.3% and 1.9%, respectively.
Over the 2014-2018 period, veal production contracted notably, averaging annual decreases of 8.1%, but recent years and the 2019 forecast indicate a slowed rate of contraction, the outlook report said.
CATTLE AND BEEF
First-quarter 2018 commercial beef production was almost 6.5 billion pounds, 2.6% more than a year earlier, the report said.
So far this quarter, the USDA’s, Agricultural Marketing Service reports federally inspected slaughter and carcass weights below expectations. Consequently, the second-quarter 2018 production forecast was cut by 305 million pounds to 6.8 billion.
Commercial beef production in 2019 was forecast at 27.7 billion pounds, 1.8% more than expected production this year, the USDA report said. Greater production and continued demand strength from Asian markets were expected to boost beef exports to another record high in 2019.
Carcass weights also were expected to be higher, which, together with an increase in slaughter numbers, provides almost 500 million additional pounds of beef compared with 2018, the USDA said. Domestic and foreign demand were expected to absorb the increase in supplies.
Aggregate domestic beef disappearance next year was expected to grow by 1.2%, the retail equivalent of 58.8 pounds per capita, compared with 58.1 pounds per capita in 2018.
Slightly higher fed cattle prices were expected in 2019, which likely will reflect the strength of domestic and international demand, the USDA said.
PORK AND HOGS
Expanded US processing capacity was expected to support a 3% increase in commercial pork production in 2019, the Outlook report said. Higher expected processing costs were likely to temper processor margins and demand for hogs, however, with 2019 hog prices averaging $43 to $46 per cwt.
Favorable US pork prices relative to those of other pork-exporting countries were expected to help maintain international competitiveness of US pork next year, the USDA said. Exports in 2019 were expected to be 6.125 billion pounds, almost 4% above the export forecast for 2018.
First-quarter 2018 pork exports were almost 6% higher than a year earlier, with strong shipments to South Korea offsetting lower exports to Mexico and Japan.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
No cattle sold Wednesday on the Livestock Exchange Video Auction, compared with sales two weeks previous at $122.40 per cwt.
Cash cattle trading started this week at $117 per cwt on a live basis on Tuesday and then dipped to $115 to $116 on Wednesday, down $5 to $7 from last week. Dressed-basis trades were reported at $184 to $185 per cwt, down $8.50 to $9.50.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $0.61 per cwt at $231.03, while select was off $1.01 at $208.50. The choice/select spread widened to $22.53 from $22.13 with 93 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Tuesday, was $135.67 per cwt, down $0.25. This compares with Wednesday’s May close of $132.72, down $0.82.