The monthly 2020 USDA forecast for total meat production was lowered slightly from last month as decreases in pork production more than offset higher beef and poultry production.
The monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report from the USDA’s Office of the Chief Economist showed that higher beef production largely reflected a faster pace of steer and heifer slaughter. The pork production forecast was reduced on a slower expected pace of slaughter in the third quarter and lighter carcass weights for the year.
Broiler and turkey production estimates reflected June production data, and no changes were made to forecasts for outlying quarters.
For 2021, the red meat and poultry production forecast was unchanged from the previous month on offsetting changes in beef and broiler production. The 2021 beef production forecast was reduced from the previous month as lower expected placements in the first half of the year will be reflected in lower forecast slaughter in the second half of 2021. The pork production forecast was left unchanged.
The 2021 broiler production forecast was raised from last month on lower feed costs.
BEEF PRODUCTION TO RISE
The new 2020 beef production estimate was 27.028 billion pounds, up 94 million, or 0.35%, from 26.934 billion in the July report but down 127 million, or 0.47%, from 2019’s 27.155 billion.
The new 2021 beef production estimate was 27.620 billion pounds, down 100 million, or 0.36%, from 27.720 billion a month ago but up 592 million, or 2.19%, from the new 2020 estimate.
For 2020, the beef import forecast was raised 98 million pounds, or 3.22%, to 3.137 billion pounds from 3.039 billion a month ago on recent trade data and firm demand for imported processing grade beef. The 2020 beef export forecast was decreased 18 million pounds, or 0.62%, to 2.896 billion pounds from 2.914 billion on recent trade data.
The beef import forecast for 2021 also was raised to 3.045 billion pounds from 3.020 billion a month ago, a gain of 25 million, or 0.83%. Next year’s beef export forecast was left unchanged from July at 3.140 billion pounds.
PORK PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER
This year’s pork production forecast was 28.357 billion pounds, down 179 million, or 0.63%, from 28.536 billion a month ago, while next year’s forecast was left unchanged at 28.565 billion.
The new 2020 pork import forecast was raised to 861 million pounds from 851 million, a gain of 10 million, or 1.18%. For 2021, imports were pegged at 895 million pounds, unchanged from July.
Pork exports this year were estimated at 7.547 billion pounds, up 24 million, or 0.32%, from 7.523 billion in July, while the 2021 export projection was left unchanged at 7.650 billion.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle trading was reported in the Plains this week at $103 to $105 per cwt on a live basis, up $2 to $4 from last week. Dressed-basis trading was done last week at $163 to $164 per cwt, up $3 to $4.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $1.01 per cwt at $209.09, while select was up $0.97 at $195.99. The choice/select spread widened to $13.10 from $13.06 with 149 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
Six heifer contracts were tendered Wednesday for delivery against the Aug live cattle futures contract at zero. Six steer contracts were retendered for delivery at 1, and six steer contracts were reclaimed at 1.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $142.62 per cwt, up $0.20. This compares with Wednesday’s Aug contract settlement of $145.25, up $0.75.