The USDA’s 2020 total red meat and poultry production forecast was raised from last month despite a lower outlook for pork.
The data came from the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Friday.
This year’s beef production forecast was raised from the September report on higher expected second-half cattle slaughter, the report said. The pork production forecast was reduced on lower second-half commercial hog slaughter and lighter carcass weights. And the broiler production forecast was raised on production data to date.
For 2021, the total red meat and poultry forecast was raised from the September forecast on higher expected beef, pork and broiler production. Beef production was raised from last month on higher expected steer and heifer slaughter. Pork production was raised on higher forecast commercial hog slaughter. And the broiler production forecast was raised on slightly more rapid production growth.
BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE UP
For this year, the beef production forecast was placed at 27.138 billion pounds, up 90 million, or 0.33%, from 27.048 billion in the September WASDE report. Still, this is down from last year’s total of 27.155 billion pounds by 17 million, or 0.06%.
For next year, the beef production estimate went up to 27.365 billion pounds from 27.335 billion in the September report, a gain of 30 million, or 0.11%. If realized, this would be a gain of 227 million pounds, or 0.84%, from the 2020 production estimate.
Beef imports this year could total 3.447 billion pounds, the USDA said. This would be up from the September estimate of 3.272 billion by 175 million, or 5.35%. Beef exports this year were forecast at 2.896 billion pounds, unchanged from the September report.
Next year’s US beef imports were expected to total 3.135 billion pounds, up 90 million, or 2.96%, from an estimate of 3.045 billion a month ago. Beef exports for 2021 were projected to be 3.080 billion pounds, down 60 million, or 1.91%, from 3.140 billion in the September report.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATES MIXED
The 2020 pork production estimate came to 28.157 billion pounds, down 80 million, or 0.28%, from the September estimate of 28.237 billion but up 519 million, or 1.88%, from 2019’s total of 27.638 billion.
For 2021, the USDA’s pork production estimate went up 65 million pounds, or 0.23%, in Friday’s report to 28.510 billion pounds from 28.445 billion in the September report. This also would be up 353 million pounds, or 1.25%, from the latest 2020 estimate.
2020 pork imports in the October report were pegged at 871 million pounds, up 10 million, or 1.16%, from 861 million in the September report. Expected exports were left unchanged at 525 million pounds.
2021 pork imports were seen up 50 million pounds, or 5.59%, at 945 million from 895 million. Exports were steady at 575 million.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle trading last week was seen at $107 to $109 per cwt on a live basis, up $3 to $4 from the previous week. Dressed-basis trading was reported last week at $167 to $170 per cwt, up $3 to $6.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was down $1.94 per cwt at $214.06, while select was off $3.28 at $199.82. The choice/select spread widened to $14.24 from $12.90 with 105 loads of fabricated product and 19 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
There were no delivery notices against the Oct live cattle futures market Friday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $141.92 per cwt, down $0.68. This compares with Friday’s Oct contract settlement of $138.25 per cwt, up $0.20.