The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Thursday forecast lower 2018 total red meat and poultry production from last month.
Total 2018 red meat and poultry production was estimated at 102.607 billion pounds, down 477 million, or 0.47%, from 103.084 billion in the September report.
Next year’s total red meat and poultry production forecast was raised 82 million pounds, or 0.08%, to 105.845 billion pounds from 105.763 billion in the September report as higher expected beef production more than offset lowered forecasts for pork and broiler production.
BEEF PRODUCTION FORECAST MIXED
The 2018 beef production estimate was reduced 150 million pounds, or 0.57%, to 26.944 billion pounds from 27.094 billion in September largely because of lower expected fourth-quarter fed cattle slaughter, the report said. Average carcass weights were forecast lower on a higher expected proportion of cows in the slaughter mix.
The 2019 beef production estimate was raised 190 million pounds, or 0.69%, to 27.910 billion pounds from 27.720 billion last month as larger placements in late 2018 and early 2019 are marketed in 2019, the report said. However, carcass weight estimates were lowered for the early part of the year.
The report lowered beef import forecasts for 2018 and 2019 to 3.027 billion pounds and 3.100 billion pounds, respectively, from 3.037 billion and 3.140 billion, while beef export forecasts remained unchanged at 3.164 billion for 2018 and 3.245 billion for 2019.
PORK
The pork production forecast was lowered on smaller second-half commercial hog slaughter and lighter carcass weights, the report said.
Pork production this year was forecast slightly lower at 26.425 billion pounds from 26.675 billion last month, a decline of 250 million, or 0.94%, the report said. Hog slaughter and carcass weight forecasts were reduced.
Pork production next year was forecast at 27.810 billion pounds, up 65 million, or 0.23%, from 27.875 billion last month, the report said.
For 2018, pork imports were forecast at 1.064 billion pounds, down 35 million, or 3.18%, from 1.099 billion in the September report. Pork import forecasts for 2019 were reduced 15 million, or 1.42%, to 1.060 billion pounds from last month’s 1.075 billion.
No change was made to the 2018 pork export forecast of 5.989 billion pounds, but the 2019 export forecast was raised 85 million pounds, or 1.39%, to 6.200 billion from 6.115 billion last month on strong global demand for competitively priced US pork products.
BROILER PRODUCTION SEEN DOWN
The broiler and turkey production forecasts were reduced on expectations of slightly lower slaughter for the rest of the year.
The 2018 broiler production estimate was reduced to 42.570 billion pounds from 42.620 billion, and the 2019 broiler production forecast was reduced to 43.370 billion from 43.420 billion last month.
Annual broiler export forecasts for 2018 and 2019 were unchanged from last month at 6.869 billion and 7.045 billion pounds, respectively.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Cattle sales this week were reported at $110 to $111 per cwt, steady to $1 lower than last week. Dressed sales were reported at $173 to $174 per cwt, steady to down $1.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $0.40 per cwt at $202.51, while select was up $0.72 at $192.49. The choice/select spread narrowed to $10.02 from $10.34 with 108 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
There was one heifer delivery tender at zero Thursday plus 30 heifer retenders at one and 30 heifer demands at one.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Wednesday, was $158.37 per cwt, down $0.01. This compares with Thursday’s Oct settlement of $156.85, up $0.82.