US cattle herd numbers are scheduled for release on Friday, but even before the numbers come out, USDA data show an increase in total female slaughter through 2019 that could bring total herd size down from its year-earlier numbers.
Many market analysts felt the peak in the current cattle cycle
The USDA said all cattle and calves in the US as of Jan. 1, 2019, totaled 94.8 million head, slightly more than the 94.3 million a year earlier. All cows and heifers that calved during 2018 stood at 41.1 million head, 1% more than the 40.9 million on Jan. 1, 2018.
Beef cows on hand Jan. 1, 2019, totaled 31.8 million head, up 1% from a year earlier, the USDA said. Milk cows, at 9.35 million head, were down 1% from the previous year.
All heifers weighing 500 pounds or more as of Jan. 1, 2019, totaled 20.2 million head, slightly more than the 20.2 million head on Jan. 1, 2018.
Beef replacement heifers, at 5.92 million head, were down 3% from a year ago, the USDA said. Milk replacement heifers, at 4.70 million head, were down 1%. Other heifers, at 9.60 million head, totaled 3% more than a year earlier.
Steers weighing 500 pounds and more as of Jan. 1, 2019, totaled 16.6 million head, up 1% from a year earlier. Bulls weighing 500 pounds and over totaled 2.26 million head, up slightly from 2018.
Calves weighing less than 500 pounds as of Jan> 1, 2019, totaled 14.5 million head, up 1% from a year earlier.
2019 FEMALE SLAUGHTER ABOVE AVERAGE
USDA weekly slaughter data show that through last year, total cow slaughter was above the 2014-2018 average in all but two weeks. The first was the first week of the year when 103,454 were slaughtered versus the average of 104,440. The second was the last week of November when it was 107,216 head, compared with the average of 109,860.
Total heifer kill last year was above the previous five-year average every week except the last week of November when it was 163,944 head, compared with 166,340.
By comparison, weekly steer slaughter totals through 2019 mirrored the 2014-2018 average almost every week, and in weeks where they were above or below the average, it almost always took them three weeks or less to get back in line.
Plus, it’s clear that much of the added cow slaughter last year was in beef cows. Weekly beef cow kill was above the 2014-2018 average in every week with the difference generally becoming wider as the year progressed. The widest difference was in the late fall, and the trend toward greater beef cow slaughter continues into 2020.
By contrast, dairy cow slaughter, while above the 2014-2918 average in most weeks last year, showed a tendency to remain only slightly above the average, aside from a bulge in February and March.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Cash cattle trading in the Plains last week was at $123 to $127 per cwt, down $1 to up $2.50 from the previous week. Dressed-basis trading was at $198 to $199.50 per cwt, steady to up $0.50.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $0.74 per cwt at $212.85, while select was up $1.66 at $212.16. The choice/select spread narrowed to $0.69 from $3.09 with 114 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Monday was $143.76 per cwt, down $0.56. This compares with Tuesday’s Jan contract settlement of $142.05, up $0.15 and the Mar close of $135.40, up $0.22.