There should be adequate supplies of beef around for the Independence Day holiday this Saturday, an agricultural economist said.
Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University agricultural economist, said in a letter to Extension Agents called Cow/Calf Corner, said in anticipation of the Independence Day holiday, estimated beef production for the week ending June 27 was 562.3 million pounds, up 5.3% from a year earlier.
Peel said that assessment of adequate beef supplies was based on estimated weekly slaughter of 680,000 head, 1.5% over year-ago levels and included an estimated Saturday slaughter of 82,000 head, up 39% year over year.
For the quarter, beef production of 6.046 billion pounds lagged the 2019 quarter by 11.3%, he said. Some of this could be made up in the third quarter where estimated production of 7.315 billion pounds could exceed the year-earlier quarter by 5.7%.
The large Saturday slaughter was scheduled for last week since the holiday this week is on Saturday, Peel said. The actual slaughter and beef production data for the week ending June 13, confirmed that beef production exceeded year-ago production levels by 0.7%, the first year-over-year weekly beef production increase since the first week of April.
GREAT CONSUMER RELIEF
After the disappointing shortages and high beef prices during the Memorial Day holiday, the improved beef situation for this grilling holiday likely is a great relief to consumers, he said. Grocery stores should be well stocked in time for the holiday, and retail prices are adjusting down rapidly.
Local conditions may vary for individual stores, however, Peel said. It may depend on their particular supply arrangements.
Retail price adjustments were said to be following rapid decreases in wholesale beef prices, he said. Choice boxed beef prices increased from a pre-COVID-19 level of $208.14 per cwt on March 13 to a daily peak of $475.39 on April 12 and back to $207.17 per cwt last Friday, June 26.
OTHER MEATS ALSO PLENTIFUL
Other meat is plentiful as well, Peel said. The June Quarterly Hog and Pig report from the USDA pegged the total hog inventory at 79.6 million head, up 5.2% year over year.
After falling behind 2019 in the second quarter by 4.2%, forecasts show increased pork production through 2020, with a brief, modest contraction in early 2021, he said.
The broiler industry decreased placement of chicks in finishing barns in April and May, which will lead to a modest decrease in broiler production in the third quarter, Peel said. However, total production for beef, pork and broilers was projected to increase to a new annual record in 2020.
Current forecasts for 2021 project a decrease in annual beef production but continued increases in pork and broiler production leading to another record level of total meat production, he said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle sold this week at $95 to $96 per cwt on a live basis, down $2 to up $1.50 from last week’s range. Dressed-basis sales were at $152 to $155 per cwt, steady to down $1.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $1.59 per cwt at $205.38, while select was off $1.47 at $198.43. The choice/select spread narrowed to $6.95 from $7.07 with 133 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
Five heifer and four steer contracts were tendered for delivery at zero Wednesday against the Jun live cattle futures contract.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $129.13 per cwt, down $0.29. This compares with Wednesday’s Aug contract settlement of $133.07, up $0.22.