The USDA’s forecast for 2021 red meat and poultry production Monday was lowered from last month on lower pork, broiler and turkey forecasts, the USDA said in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.
For 2022, the red meat and poultry production forecast was lowered, primarily on lower pork production expectations as well as slight declines in beef production.
BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN ABOUT STEADY
The 2021 beef production forecast was left unchanged at 27.905 billion pounds as higher slaughter estimates were offset by lower expected carcass weights.
Next year’s beef production estimate was placed at 27.325 billion pounds, down 10 million, or 0.04%, from 27.335 billion in the June report and down 580 million, or 2.08%, from the 2021 production estimate of 27.905 billion pounds.
Beef import forecasts for 2021 and 2022 were left unchanged at 3.021 billion and 2.990 billion pounds, respectively, while export forecasts were raised for both years on continued firm demand from Asia. The new 2021 beef export forecast was 3.422 billion pounds, up 80 million, or 2.39%, from 3.342 billion last month, while the 2022 forecast was for 3.320 billion pounds, up 20 million, or 0.61%, from 3.300 billion.
PORK PRODUCTION FORECAST LOWER
The 2021 pork production estimate was reduced 40 million pounds, or 0.14%, to 28.151 billion pounds from 28.191 billion last month on lower expected second-half commercial hog slaughter.
The USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report indicated producers expected to farrow fewer sows in the second half of 2021, which, when coupled with slower forecast growth in pigs per litter, will tighten supplies of market-ready hogs in 2022 relative to last month’s forecast.
The 2022 pork production forecast was for 28.120 billion pounds, down 425 million, or 1.49%, from June’s 28.545-billion-pound estimate and down 31 million, or 0.11%, from the new 2021 estimate of 28.151 billion.
Pork import and export forecasts for 2021 and 2022 were unchanged with 2021 imports at 982 million pounds and exports at 7.552 billion, and 2022 imports at 990 million and exports at 7.550 billion.
POULTRY PRODUCTION SEEN DOWN
Broiler production for this year was estimated at 44.693 billion pounds, down 200 million, or 0.45%, from June’s 44.893 billion but up 110 million, or 0.25%, from last year’s 44.583 billion on the pace of production in the second quarter. However, forecasts for the rest of the year were unchanged.
2022 broiler production was pegged at 45.300 billion pounds, unchanged from June.
Broiler exports for 2021 were raised to 7.449 billion pounds from 7.399 billion primarily on higher-than-expected May data, but no change was made to the forecasts for 2022 of 7.450 billion pounsa.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle traded this week at $125 per cwt on a live basis, steady to up $5 from last week. Dressed-basis trade last week was at $196 to $202, down $1 to $2.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was down $3.59 per cwt at $275.00, while select was up $1.36 at $258.77. The choice/select spread narrowed to $16.23 from $21.18 with 100 loads of fabricated product and 22 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Monday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.07 to $1.15 a bushel over the Sep futures and for southwest Kansas were unchanged at $0.70 over Sep, which settled at $5.45 1/4 a bushel, up $0.15 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $153.82 per cwt up $1.05. This compares with Monday’s Aug contract settlement of $158.15 per cwt, down $1.02.