USDA Raises 2020 Red Meat, Poultry Production Forecast

The USDA’s forecast for 2020 total red meat and poultry production Tuesday was raised from last month on higher beef, pork and broiler production estimates.

The data came from the monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Tuesday.

For 2021, the total red meat and poultry forecast was raised from last month as higher expected broiler production more than offset a lower forecast for pork production.




Beef production for this year was raised 85 million pounds, or 0.31%, to 27.223 billion pounds from the October report of 27.138 billion on higher expected slaughter of fed and non-fed cattle.  It also was up 68 million pounds, or 0.25%, from the 2019 production of 27.155 billion pounds.

The USDA’s estimate for 2021 beef production was left unchanged at 27.365 billion pounds.

The 2020 beef export forecast was raised 9 million pounds, or 0.31%, to 2.905 billion pounds from 2.896 billion on stronger expected demand from major trading partners.  Expected imports were adjusted 3 million pounds, or 0.09%, upward to 3.450 billion from 3.447 billion to reflect third-quarter reported data.  No change was made to the fourth-quarter forecast.





The 2020 pork production forecast was raised 24 million pounds, or 0.09%, to 28.181 billion pounds from 28.157 billion in October on a more rapid pace of slaughter.  It remained 543 million pounds, or 1.96%, above 2019 production of 27.638 billion pounds.

For next year, the new estimate for pork production of 28.485 billion pounds was up from the 2020 estimate by 304 million pounds, or 1.08%.

The 2020 pork import forecast was raised to 887 million pounds from 871 million in October, while the export forecast was reduced to 7.324 billion from 7.347 billion on third-quarter trade data.




The 2020 broiler production forecast was 44.709 billion pounds, up 107 million, or 0.24%, from 44.602 billion in October after the USDA raised its expected production for the fourth quarter.  The new estimate was 804 million, or 1.83%, above the 2019 production rate of 43.905 billion pounds.

The 2021 broiler production estimate of 45.095 billion pounds was up 35 million, or 0.08%, from the October forecast of 45.060 billion.

2020 broiler export expectations were raised to 7.304 billion pounds, up 58 million, or 0.80%, from 7.246 billion a month ago.  The 2020 broiler import forecast came to 148 million pounds, up two million, or 1.37%, from 146 million in October.

Turkey production was virtually unchanged at 5.737 billion pounds as higher forecast production in the third quarter largely offset a lower fourth-quarter forecast.




Fed cattle trading was seen Tuesday at $110 per cwt in the Plains, up $2.75 to $4 from last week’s range.  Dressed-basis trading was done last week at $160 to $167 per cwt, steady to up $5.

The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $0.59 per cwt at $222.84, while select was off $0.09 at $208.46.  The choice/select spread widened to $14.38 from $13.70 with 119 loads of fabricated product and 28 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The USDA reported Wednesday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.10 to $1.15 per bushel over the Dec CME futures contract, which settled at $4.17 1/2 a bushel, down $0.05 3/4.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended
Tuesday was $135.97 per cwt, up $0.12.  This compares with Wednesday’s Nov contract settlement of $140.60 per cwt, down $0.25.