December retail price information issued by the Economic Research Service and the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows consumers paid slightly lower retail prices for pork, broilers and turkey last year than in 2017 but higher prices for beef and eggs.
The information came from the USDA’s Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook.
Specifically:
-The 2018 Economic Research Service’s 2018 pork retail value of $3.74 a pound was about 1% less than in 2017.
-The ERS’ retail broiler composite averaged $1.87 per pound last year, about 0.15% less than its 2017 level of $1.88.
-The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ frozen whole turkey retail price last year averaged $1.50 a pound, about 5% less than in 2017.
-The ERS retail choice beef value for 2018 was $5.92 a pound, 0.25% more than in 2017.
-The BLS 2018 retail price of grade A eggs of $1.74 a dozen, averaged almost 19% more than in 2017.
BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER
Following the partial government shutdown, the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service released actual weekly slaughter data for December, providing a clearer picture of how 2018 ended.
The biggest take away was that average steer and heifer carcass weights dropped considerably in December. This drop was likely because of winter weather events across cattle feeding regions and a greater proportion of cow slaughter, the ERS said.
While the change in weights was contrary to how 2017 ended, weights typically drop at the end of the fourth quarter.
Further limiting December production, overall cattle slaughter was less than previously expected, the ERS said. As a result, when compared with the December 2018 forecast, 2018 beef production in February was decreased by 75 million pounds to 26.9 billion.
With limited slaughter data for January, the beef production forecast for first-half 2019 still was coming into focus, the ERS said. But based on available data, the anticipated fed cattle slaughter forecast for first-half 2019 was lowered from December.
In addition, expectations for average carcass weights were reduced, resulting in a lower 2019 beef production forecast—by 175 million pounds to 27.6 billion.
BEEF EXPORT FORECAST REDUCED
November US beef exports were 266 million pounds, up 2.2% from year-earlier levels, which was the lowest year-over-year growth in 2018. Among major destinations, year-over-year higher volumes were shipped to South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, while shipments to Hong Kong declined.
January through November export growth was more than 11%, although the pace of year-over-year export growth in 2018 has slowed since July. South Korea reported a notable decline in US beef imports in December from November.
Based on the decline reported by South Korea, fourth-quarter US beef exports were revised downward by 10 million pounds from the December forecast to 825 million. The new 2018 annual forecast was 3.180 billion pounds.
The export forecast for 2019 also was adjusted lower by 10 million pounds from the December forecast to 3.255 billion.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Cash cattle trade took place late last week at mostly $126 to $126.50 per cwt on a live basis, up $0.50 to $1 from the previous week, and at mostly $202, up $2 to $4.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $0.16 per cwt at $219.55, while select was up $2.22 at $214.57. The choice/select spread narrowed to $4.98 from $7.04 with 63 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
There were no CME delivery notices, retenders or demands on Monday.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Friday, was $140.42 per cwt, down $0.89. This compares with Monday’s Mar contract settlement of $142.50, down $0.40.