Despite the current wave of China’s COVID-19 infections, 2023 import forecasts of beef and pork were revised upward and now are seen higher than 2022, said the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service, in the monthly Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade.
However, chicken meat imports were forecast marginally lower, the FAS said.
The upward revisions for China’s red meat import forecasts were derived partially from higher estimates for 2022 as fourth-quarter shipments were stronger than expected, the report said. For 2023, projected economic recovery, along with the anticipated revival of the Hotel, Restaurant and Institutional sector, supported expanding consumption and red meat imports.
Despite an upward revision for China’s 2023 pork production from the October forecast, domestic supplies were virtually unchanged year-on-year and were thought unlikely to meet rebounding consumption, the FAS said.
BEEF
- Global 2023 beef production estimates were virtually unchanged from October at 59.2 million tonnes. Global beef carcass prices eased entering 2023 — except for the US. Nevertheless, carcass prices among major exporters still were relatively high versus pre-pandemic levels, suggesting limited supplies and firm demand from key markets.
- Global 2023 beef exports were close to October at 12.2 million tonnes. China’s import estimate was raised given the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, which could strengthen HRI demand. Australia and Brazil were expected to gain market share via lower exportable supplies in the US, Uruguay and Argentina. US import estimates also were raised as lower beef production supports additional imports from Brazil and Australia.
PORK
- Global 2023 pork production estimates were revised upward 3% from October to 114.0 million tonnes on higher output in China. China’s pork demand was expected to strengthen because of lifted COVID-19 restrictions. Production forecasts remained largely unchanged for other countries.
- Global 2023 pork exports were forecast 2% higher from October to 10.7 million tonnes as EU, Brazil and US export forecasts were up on stronger-than-anticipated demand from key Asia markets. Upward revisions in China and Philippines imports could more than offset a decline in the US. Philippines imports were forecast higher as reduced import tariffs for pork were extended through 2023. African swine fever continues to stifle Philippines production, boosting import demand.
CHICKEN MEAT
- The global 2023 chicken meat production estimate was virtually unchanged from October at 102.9 million tonnes as upward revisions for UK, Thailand and Mexico offset a decrease for Brazil.
- Global 2023 chicken meat export estimates were revised 1% lower from October to 14.0 million tonnes. Weaker China, EU, South Africa and UK demand could affect Brazil, the world’s leading exporter, the most. While Brazil shipments were forecast lower from October, volumes still were expected to reach historical levels.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $156.06 to $157.05 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $154.80 to $160.00. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $246.31 to $246.83 per cwt, versus $244.52 to $249.16.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $0.34 per cwt at $268.10 while select was up $0.98 at $251.52. The choice/select spread narrowed to $16.58 from $17.22 with 54 loads of fabricated product and 18 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were down $0.05 to $0.10 at $1.65 to $1.80 a bushel over the Mar corn contract. Bids in Kansas were steady at $0.85 over Mar, which settled at $6.83 ¾ a bushel, up $0.00 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $179.88 per cwt, up $0.31. This compares with Monday’s Mar contract settlement of $183.92 per cwt, up $0.45.