Total red meat production this far into 2023 is tracking relatively close to last year and the 2017-2021 average, but the seasonal trend is for output to decline into early summer.
Total red meat production includes veal, lamb and mutton, which comprises a small, but occasionally important piece of the whole.
Data from the USDA and compiled by the Livestock Marketing Information Center indicates veal production is declining. This possibly is because of increasing use of sexed semen by dairy farms and a decline in the percentage of bull calves born.
TOTAL PRODUCTION SLIDING
Total federally inspected red meat production so far this year from the USDA stands at 12.773 billion pounds, down 1.7% from 12.993 billion at this point last year. This should not be unexpected, given the decline in beef production this year.
Further declines in beef production are expected this year as feedlot inventories catch up with declines in the cow herd and in calf production.
All of the decline in total red meat production has come from beef and veal production. Beef production, at 6.216 billion pounds, is down about 4.4% from 6.499 billion last year at this time. Veal production, at 11.8 million pounds is down about 12.0% from 12.5 million.
Last week, federally inspected beef production was pegged at 151.3 million pounds, down about 0.7% from 519.1 million the previous week. It’s also down about 5.6% from 546.0 million pounds the same week a year earlier.
It looks like first-quarter beef production will fall behind the USDA’s latest estimate in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report. The March 8 report estimated Q1 production at 6.845 billion pounds. Subtracting year-to-date production from the estimate gives a needed weekly production this week of 628.6 million pounds, significantly more than last week’s 515.3 million and the 519.1 million the week before that.
PORK PRODUCTION HOLDING
Total federally inspected pork production this year stands at about 6.519 billion pounds, up about 1.0% from 6.455 billion last year at this time. Last week’s production was pegged at 532.5 million pounds, down about 1.3% from 539.7 million the previous week but up about 1.2% from 526.4 million a year ago.
Unlike beef production it looks like pork will make the USDA’s latest quarterly estimate. Subtracting the year-to-date production from the WASDE Q1 estimate of 7.000 billion pounds, leaves only 481 million pounds of necessary production this week to make the mark. This compares with last week’s 532.5 million pounds and the previous week’s 539.7 million.
Pork production next quarter was expected to decline to 6.545 billion pounds, however.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $164.09 to $165.05 per cwt, compared with last week’s range of $164.03 to $165.84. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $258.15 to $258.25 per cwt, versus $257.00 to $262.24.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $0.48 per cwt at $280.36 while select was up $0.97 at $269.72. The choice/select spread narrowed to $10.64 from $11.13 with 49 loads of fabricated product and 22 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.60 to $1.70 a bushel over the May corn contract. Bids in Kansas were steady at $0.75 over May, which settled at $6.48 1/4 a bushel, up $0.05 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $191.24 per cwt, up $2.39. This compares with Monday’s Mar contract settlement of $192.35 per cwt, up $2.70 and Apr’s $197.62, up $2.82.