2024 China Pork Imports Expected 21% Lower

The USDA’s revised 2024 forecast for China’s pork imports anticipated a 21% decline year on year to 1.5 million tonnes, the lowest since 2019.

If realized, the USDA’s Livestock and Poultry: World Markets and Trade report said China’s 2024 imports will return to levels similar to those before China’s outbreaks of African swine fever, which began to affect Chinese production at the end of 2018.

Despite the forecast for lower imports, China was expected to remain the largest global pork importer, the World Markets and Trade report said.

 

ASF BOOSTED CHINA COVID PORK IMPORTS

 

At the peak of the ASF outbreaks in 2020, China’s pork imports accounted for 13% of the country’s pork consumption, the USDA said.  The import share of consumption has steadily declined since then as domestic production recovered from ASF and returned to pre-ASF levels in 2022.

For 2024, China’s pork production was forecast to be 56% higher than 2020, and 2024 imports were projected to account for only 3% of consumption, the report said.

Partly because of abundant domestic supplies, stubbornly low pork prices in China since early 2023 have weakened demand for imports, the USDA said.  Average reported pork prices were 10% less than during the first quarter of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023 and 56% less than the first quarter of 20201.

For many major foreign suppliers, it is difficult for their exports to remain competitive in the Chinese market given low domestic prices, the USDA said.

Major global pork suppliers to China – including the European Union, Brazil and the United States – were expected to seek alternative markets, the USDA said.  However, these markets will only partially offset lower Chinese demand.

As a result, competition was expected to increase in other large import markets including Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.

 

CHINA 2024 BEEF, VEAL IMPORTS SEEN LOWER

 

China’s 2024 beef imports were expected to total 3.900 million tonnes, up from the April estimate of 3.450 million, which was down from the 2023 level of 3.577 million, the USDA said.

China’s annual beef imports dwarf those of many other countries.  The USDA projected the next highest 2924 beef importer to be Japan with 705,000 tonnes, up from 2023’s 702,000.

The next largest beef importer was expected to be South Korea at 575,000 tonnes, down from the 2023 total of 203,000 tonnes.  After this came the UK at an expected 415,000 tonnes, up from last year’s 384,000.

 

CATTLE, BEEF RECAP

 

The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $190.00 per cwt to $200.62, compared with last week’s range of $188.00 to $198.00 per cwt.  FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $296.77 per cwt to $302.92, compared with $296.12 to $308.96.

The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $0.29 per cwt at $314.77 while select was down $1.22 at $300.16.  The choice/select spread widened to $14.61 from $13.10 with 122 loads of fabricated product and 23 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $381.53 per cwt, and 50% beef was $160.49.

The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.46 to $1.70 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $3.82 3/4 a bushel, down $0.06.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $258.69 per cwt, down $0.04.  This compares with Wednesday’s Aug contract settlement of $257.25, up $0.27.