Retail demand for fresh beef last year was record high, despite high prices in the meat case, and it is on track to set another record in 2025.
The Livestock Marketing Information Center, using Bureau of Labor Statistics and USDA Economic Research Service data, computed its Retail All Fresh Beef Demand Index for the first quarter of this year at 139, using 2000 as 100. This eclipsed the previous record-high first quarter reading of 135 set in 2022.
BEEF DEMAND STRONG
First-quarter US beef demand index readings grew from their latest low of 105 in 2018 and 2019 to 116 in 2020 and then to 120 in 2021, up to the 2022 high of 125, set back to 124 in 2023, bounced to 129 in 2024 and set its record high this year.
No second-quarter index readings were available yet, but the second quarter of 2024 was near a record at an index reading of 122, which tied the second quarter of 2022. The record high of 124 was reached in 2021. But just as with the first-quarter index, readings set a recent lot of 106 in 2017 and grew into the 2021 peak before declining through 2023 and climbing again in 2024.
The third-quarter beef demand index reading last year was 124, tied for the record quarterly high with 2020. Since then, the index has read 121 in 2021, 115 in 2022, 113 in 2023 and 124 in 2024.
The fourth-quarter beef demand index last year read 137, just short of the record high of 139 in 2021. In 2022, the fourth-quarter beef demand index was 122, followed by 2023’s 128 and 2024’2 137.
BOXED BEEF CUTOUT MIRRORS RETAIL DEMAND STRENGTH
Accordingly, the wholesale price of beef from the packing plants has mirrored the rise in beef demand.
Last week’s negotiated boxed beef price for choice 600- to 900-pound carcasses was $388.36 per cwt, up $14.69, or 3.93%, from $373.67 just a week earlier. For comparison, the price was up $66.97, or 20.8%, from $321.39 a year earlier, and up $106.47, or 37.9%, from the 2019-2023 average weekly price of $281.09.
Within that carcass price were some impressive primal values as well. The choice 600- to 900-pound primal rib value last week was $538.62 per cwt, up $5.61, or 1.05%, from $533.01 a week earlier, up $48.08, or 9.80%, from $490.54 a year earlier and up $112.12, or 26.3%, from the previous five-year average of $426.50.
And, the primal chuck was reported last week at $320.65 per cwt, up $19.66, or 6.53%, from $300.99 a week earlier, up %60.34, or 23.2%, from $260.31 last year and up $106.93, or 50.0%, from the average of $213.72.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $230.68 per cwt to $235.86, compared with last week’s range of $225.15 to $243.37 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $365.32 per cwt to $373.15, compared with $353.24 to $379.61.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $4.03 per cwt at $394.25 while select was down $0.69 at $382.41. The choice/select spread widened to $11.84 from $7.12 with 64 loads of fabricated product and 13 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $397.92 per cwt, and 50% beef was $237.85.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.25 to $1.35 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.16 1/4, down $0.03.
No live cattle delivery notices were posted.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $310.33 per cwt, down $0.52. This compares with Tuesday’s Aug contract settlement of $302.25, down $0.55.