Beef production last year declined along with pork, but beef was the leader, as total pork production was very close to the 2019-2023 average.
In fact, weekly beef production last year remained less than the five-year average in all but two weeks. Pork production, though, tended to vacillate all around the weekly production lines of 2024 and the previous five-year average on a graph all year.
BEEF PRODUCTION DOWN
While the weekly beef production figures for the last couple of weeks of 2025 could be updated, the USDA total for beef production last year was 25.509 billion pounds. This was down 874 million pounds, or 3.31%, from 26.383 billion in 2023 and down 1.499 billion, or 5.55%, from the previous five-year average of 27.008 billion pounds.
The divergence of weekly beef production from the same weeks in 2024 tended to be more exaggerated beginning in April. From there until the last week of November, the divergence was pronounced.
The divergence from the five-year average began in late April and lasted until late November.
It’s easy to predict that annual beef production this year will be down again, a market analyst said. Cattle slaughter last year totaled 29.140 million head, down 2.632 million, or 8.48%, from 31.026 million in 2024 and down 3.632 million, or 11.1%, from the 2019-2023 average of 32.772 million.
The decline was linked directly to a seven-year decline in the US cattle herd size because of negative margins and drought.
What’s more, there is little evidence that cow/calf producers have begun rebuilding their herds from the current historic lows, the analyst said. Once herd rebuilding begins, slaughter will decrease as heifers are kept for breeding instead of being sold to feedlots for eventual slaughter. It’ll be at least two to four years before beef supplies increase enough for retail prices to decline.
PORK PRODUCTION DOWN SLIGHTLY
Total preliminary pork production last year was 27.364 billion pounds, according to USDA data compiled by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver. This was down 116 million, or 0.42%, from 27.480 billion in 2024 and down 2 million, or 0.0007%, from the 2019-2023 average of 27.366 billion.
Hog kill last year totaled 127.155 million head, down 911,000, or 0.71%, from 128.166 million the previous year and down 450,000, or 0.35%, from the previous five-year average of 127.705 million.
Weekly hog slaughter last year oscillated around the same weeks in 2024 and those of the previous five-year average. And a market analyst said there was no indication that growers had any plans to increase or decrease herd sizes anytime soon.
Therefore, hog slaughter and pork production can be expected to remain near to the average, he said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $231.58 per cwt to $234.75, compared with last week’s range of $226.55 to $231.21 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $359.10 per cwt to $363.52, compared with $358.31 to $363.53.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $3.03 per cwt at $354.28 while select was off $1.80 at $349.28. The choice/select spread widened to $5.00 from $0.17 with 117 loads of fabricated product and 21 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $402.82 per cwt, and 50% beef was $140.06.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $0.90 to $1.10 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.46 3/4, up $0.02 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $363.15 per cwt, up $0.78. This compares with Wednesday’s Jan contract settlement of $359.60, down $2.57.