Cattle markets are off to a hot start in 2025, observed Will Secor, Extension livestock economist, at the University of Georgia, in a Livestock Marketing Information Center letter called In The Cattle Markets.
All through the supply chain from beef markets to feeder cattle markets, prices are up significantly from last year, Secor said. Continuing tight supplies and strong demand remain the driving forces behind these price movements.
BOXED BEEF PRICES UP
Boxed beef prices are up about 16% year-over-year and moved higher in the second week of January compared with the first reading of the year, he said. Direct fed steer prices also increased in the second week by about 2% compared to the first week and up 17% year-over-year.
It is notable that those year-over-year price increases come amid higher head counts moving through negotiated cash markets, Secor said.
FEEDER CATTLE PRICES UP
In feeder cattle markets, prices are up across the country and across weights, he said. 700- to 800-pound feeder steer prices are up roughly 20% in the Plains and much of the Southeast.
Some areas have seen more substantial increases, for example, Oklahoma at around 24%, while others are more moderate, for example, Mississippi at around 16%.
At lower weights, prices are also higher, Secor said. However, different regions have seen more pronounced differences.
Many parts of the Southeast have seen 500- to 600-pound steer prices proportionally higher than heavier-weight feeder steers, he said. For example, 700- to 800-pound steers in Kentucky increased 23% year-over-year, while 500- to 600-pound steer prices increased slightly more at 26%.
400- to 500-pound steer prices in Kentucky were up by 34% year-over-year, Secor said. In contrast, many western states saw prices increase proportionately less for lighter-weight feeder cattle compared with their heavier-weight counterparts.
PRICES KEEP MOVING HIGHER
Overall, 2025 picked up where 2024 left off, he said. Prices continue to move higher, and demand appears to be steady to strong as reflected in last year’s projected large beef disappearance and higher beef prices.
Moreover, additional macroeconomic data, like the recent jobs report, suggest the overall economy could support continued beef consumption in the year-ahead, Secor said.
Additionally, cattle supplies remain tight, he said. While aggregate supplies, like overall US cattle inventories, are unlikely to change in the short term, there are reports feeder cattle imports from Mexico could begin again soon.
This could create pressure to feeder cattle prices in the weeks after imports are allowed again, whenever that occurs, Secor said.
However, overall cattle inventory will remain constrained in the year ahead supporting prices going forward, he said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $203.52 per cwt to $209.26, compared with last week’s range of $201.58 to $204.93 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $316.06 per cwt to $327.24, compared with $314.56 to $321.61.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $3.06 per cwt at $327.48 while select was off $4.77 at $315.90. The choice/select spread widened to $11.58 from $9.87 with 116 loads of fabricated product and 22 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $364.28 per cwt, and 50% beef was $113.70.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.21 to $1.31 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.90 1/4, down $0.06 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $281.07 per cwt, up $1.62. This compares with Thursday’s Jan contract settlement of $281.90, up $1.35, and Mar’s $273.20, down $2.07.