2025 Red Meat, Poultry Production Seen Lower Than 2024

Total US red meat and poultry production for 2025 was forecast by the USDA in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Friday to be lower than 2024.

Red meat and poultry production forecasts for 2024 were reduced from last month, with lower broiler, turkey and pork forecasts offset slightly by higher beef production estimates.

 

BEEF PRODUCTION

 

The beef production estimate for 2024 was raised to 26.595 billion pounds from 26.455 billion last month on higher cattle slaughter forecasts in the second half of the year and heavier dressed weight estimates.

For 2025, beef production was forecast lower than 2024, at 25.120 billion pounds as tighter cattle supplies and increased heifer and cow retention were expected to result in lower slaughter of fed and non-fed cattle.

For 2024, the beef export forecast was raised to 2.818 billion pounds from 2.805 billion last month on data reported through the first quarter.

The 2024 beef import estimate was lowered to 4.171 billion pounds from 4.175 billion on first-quarter data, but the forecasts for the remaining quarters were unchanged.

2025 beef imports, at 4.225 billion pounds were seen higher than 2024 because of tight domestic supplies, particularly for processing-grade beef.

 

PORK PRODUCTION

 

Pork production for 2024 was forecast at 28.064 billion pounds from 54.727 billion in April as higher slaughter in the first half of the year is more than offset by lighter expected dressed weights for the duration of the year.

For 2025, pork production was forecast to increase to 28.400 billion pounds as growth in pigs per litter was expected to more than offset fewer expected farrowings.

Pork export forecasts for 2024 were lowered to 7.262 billion pounds from 7.340 billion a month ago based on recent trade data and slower-than-expected demand growth in several key markets.

2025 pork exports were forecast higher than 2024, at 7.615 billion pounds on improved price competitiveness and increased demand in several key markets.

 

CHICKEN PRODUCTION

 

Broiler production for 2024 was estimated at 46.805 billion pounds versus 47.100 billion in the April report based on slaughter data through the first quarter, with the forecast for the remainder of the year unchanged.

For 2025, broiler production was expected to increase to 47.550 billion pounds as lower feed costs and tighter red meat supplies support steady growth.

The 2024 broiler export forecast was lowered to 6.889 billion pounds from 7.060 billion last month on recent data and increased price competition from major exporters.

For 2025, broiler exports were seen higher than 2024, at 7.025 billion pounds because of greater supplies, but growth was expected to be constrained by competition from other major exporters.

 

CATTLE, BEEF RECAP

 

The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $184.00 per cwt to $188.84, compared with the previous week’s range of $182.00 to $186.75 per cwt.  FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $286.69 per cwt to $294.50, compared with $286.41 to $290.67.

The USDA choice cutout Friday was down $0.82 per cwt at $294.57 while select was down $1.59 at $284.17.  The choice/select spread widened to $10.40 from $9.63 with 121 loads of fabricated product and 34 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.

The weighted average USDA listed wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $345.89 per cwt, and 50% beef was $76.54.

The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.36 to $1.44 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.69 3/4 a bushel, up $0.13 1/4.

The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $240.61 per cwt, up $0.23.  This compares with Friday’s May contract settlement of $238.80, up $0.15.