Total 2027 US red meat and poultry production was forecast to be more than 2026 production levels as higher expected pork and poultry production more than offset lower beef production forecasts.
The total red meat and poultry production forecast for 2026 was increased from last month’s forecast as higher expected pork, broiler and turkey production more than offsets lower beef production expectations.
The data came in the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Tuesday.
BEEF PRODUCTION FORECAST LOWER
Beef production for next year was forecast lower as expected herd rebuilding and increased heifer retention will limit the availability of feeder cattle for eventual slaughter, the USDA report said.
The 2026 beef production forecast was lowered on official data through March and lower-than-expected marketings in the second quarter because of the recent pace of steer and heifer slaughter, the USDA said. The marketings forecast also was lowered for the second half of the year because of the slow pace of placements into feedlots reported in the first quarter and reduced expectations for second-quarter placements.
Lower expected cow slaughter this year also accents the production decrease forecast.
For 2027, beef export estimates were lowered from 2026 on tighter supplies, the USDA said. Beef imports for 2026 were lowered on expectations of reduced supplies in key exporting countries.
For 2026, the beef export forecast was reduced slightly to reflect official data through the first quarter, the WASDE report said.
Beef imports for 2026 were raised on the increased pace seen through the first quarter and strong demand for lean processing beef, the USDA said.
PORK PRODUCTION FORECAST HIGHER
Pork production in 2027 was forecast to increase despite limited growth in expected farrowings as improved sow productivity could support larger pig crops and increased slaughter, the WASDE report said. Heavier hog carcass weights also were forecast in 2027.
This year’s pork production estimate was raised slightly on higher production in the second half of the year, more than offsetting decreases in the second quarter, the WASDE report said.
Pork exports for 2026 were raised on increased production and competitive pricing in international markets, the WASDE report said.
2026 pork export expectations were increased in the second half of the year on improved global demand, particularly in the Western Hemisphere, the USDA said.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION SEEN UP FROM 2926
Broiler production next year was forecast to be higher than 2026 as producers respond to favorable margins and strong domestic demand, the USDA said.
The broiler production forecast for 2026 was increased on official production data reported through March and on recent slaughter and hatchery data indicating higher production for the second and third quarters, the USDA said.
Turkey production next year was forecast to increase for the second straight year on improving producer returns, the report said.
The 2026 turkey production forecast also was raised.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $251.82 per cwt to $258.52, compared with last week’s range of $246.25 to $259.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $400.43 per cwt to $405.72, compared with $388.77 to $402.31.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $0.49 per cwt at $390.73 while select was down $0.22 at $391.27. The choice/select spread remained inverted at minus $0.54 from a minus $0.27 with 84 loads of fabricated product and 12 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $448.62 per cwt, and 50% beef was $192.50.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.10 to $1.25 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.80 a bushel, up $0.04 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $356.00 per cwt, down $6.30. This compares with Tuesday’s May contract settlement of $365.90, down $2.50.