Last year, China replaced the US as the leading beef importer, said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University agricultural economist in a letter to Extension agents called Cow/Calf Corner, who added that if Hong Kong is included, total China/Hong Kong imports were larger than the US beginning in 2017.
World beef imports increased 17.7% from 2015 to projected 2019 totals, he said. Over the period, Chinese imports increased 153.4% along with a 62.2% rise into Hong Kong leading to a 122.6% increase in the China/Hong Kong region. Increased Chinese imports alone accounted for more than 75% of the net increase in total world trade through the five-year period.
By contrast US beef imports decreased by an estimated 12.3% over the period, Peel said.
In 2015, China accounted for 8.7% of world beef imports, and, including Hong Kong, brought the annual share to 13.1%, he said. Total US beef imports in 2015 accounted for 20.0% of global beef imports.
Projections for 2019 showed China accounting for 18.7% of global beef imports and, along with another 6.1% of imports into Hong Kong, means the China/Hong Kong region currently accounts for 24.8% of world beef imports, Peel said. US beef imports were projected to account for 14.9% of the world in 2019.
GLOBAL BEEF FLOWS ALTERED
The rapid growth in Chinese beef imports has dramatically altered global flows with several countries now supplying a significant share of Chinese imports, Peel said. China receives the majority of beef imports from Brazil, Uruguay, Argentina, Australia and New Zealand.
Number one beef exporter Brazil currently ships about 22% of its total exports to China and accounts for 31% of total Chinese beef imports, he said. Brazil sends another 17% of its beef exports to Hong Kong.
Uruguay is the eighth largest beef exporting country but sends about 70% of its exports to China and accounts for 21% of Chinese beef imports, Peel said.
Argentina, currently the sixth largest beef exporting country, sends about 65% of its exports to the China/Hong Kong region, he said. Argentina accounts for 17% of Chinese beef imports.
NORTH AMERICAN EXPORTERS ABSENT
Notably absent from the list are North American beef exporters, Peel said. About 2% of Canadian beef exports move to China while China accounts for less than 1% of US and Mexican beef exports.
Hong Kong is an important market for Canada (6% of exports); the US (10%) and Mexico (4%).
Despite receiving access to the Chinese market in 2017, US beef exports have shown almost no growth, Peel said, partly because of the need to develop markets there for higher quality/more expensive US product and restrictions on growth promotants, he said.
It is important for the US to participate in the growing Chinese beef market, Peel said. If the US could achieve a 10% market share of Chinese beef imports, it would add more than 11% to US beef exports.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Limited cash cattle trade was reported this week at $101 to $102 per cwt, up $1 to $2 from last week. Dressed-basis trade last week was at $159 to $162, down $1 to $5.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was down $0.07 per cwt at $218.17, while select was up $0.19 at $192.16. The choice/select spread narrowed to $26.01 from $26.27 with 90 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $137.29 per cwt, down $0.04 from the previous day. This compares with Thursday’s Sep contract settlement of $139.95, up $0.07.