The latest USDA forecast for 2020 red meat and poultry production was raised 1.539 billion pounds, or 1.47%, to 106.544 billion pounds from 105.005 billion last month.
The new forecast came from the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Friday.
For 2021, the red meat and poultry production forecast was raised 600 million pounds, or 0.56%, to 107.988 billion pounds from 107.388 billion as higher expected beef, pork and broiler production more than offsets lower forecast turkey production.
BEEF PRODUCTION FORECAST RAISED
The 2020 beef production forecast was raised 260 million pounds, or 0.97%, to 26.934 billion from 26.674 billion primarily on higher cattle slaughter and heavier carcass weights.
The USDA is to release the Cattle (inventory) report on July 24, providing a mid-year estimate of US cattle inventory as well as producer intentions regarding retention of heifers for beef cow replacement.
Forecast beef production for 2021 was raised to 27.720 billion pounds from 27.575 billion the previous month as higher expected placements in late 2020 and early 2021 will result in higher marketings.
The 2020 beef import forecast was raised 65 million pounds, or 2.19%, to 3.039 billion pounds from 2.974 billion last month, but the 2020 export forecast was lowered 30 million, or 1.02%, to 2.914 billion from 2.944 billion the previous month on recent trade data.
The 2021 beef trade forecasts were left unchanged from last month at 3.020 billion pounds of imports and 3.140 billion pounds of exports.
PORK PRODUCTION FORECAST RAISED
Forecast pork production for this year was raised from last month largely on higher expected second-half commercial hog slaughter.
The pork production forecast for 2021 was raised 330 million pounds, or 1.17%, to 28.565 billion pounds from 28.235 billion as the sector continues to adjust to the effects of COVID-19.
Pork export forecasts for 2020 and 2021 were raised from last month as international demand was expected to remain robust. 2020 exports were forecast at 7.523 billion pounds, up 325 million, or 4.52%, from 7.198 billion, and 2021 exports were pegged at 7.650 billion, up 350 million, or 4.79%, from 7.300 billion.
2020 pork imports were seen at 850 million pounds, up 34 million, or 4.17%, from 816 million, while 2021 imports were forecast at 895 million pounds, up 40 million, or 4.68%, from 855 million.
BROILER PRODUCITON ESTIMATE RAISED
The broiler production estimate for this year was raised 600 million pounds, or 1.36%, to 44.637 billion pounds from 44.037 billion on recent hatchery data, while the turkey production forecast was lowered on recent production and hatchery data.
Broiler production for 2021 was raised 200 million pounds, or 0.44%, to 45.175 billion pounds from 44.975 billion last month.
The 2020 broiler export forecast was reduced 25 million pounds, or 0.34%, to 7.338 billion pounds from 7.363 billion on recent trade data, but no change was made to the 2021 forecast of 7.400 billion.
Turkey export forecasts were lowered for 2020 and 2021 on weak import demand from key trading partners.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle sold last week at $94 to $97 per cwt on a live basis, up $1 from the previous week and at $155 to $160 dressed, up $3 to $5.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was down $1.24 per cwt at $203.26, while select was down $2.41 at $191.88. The choice/select spread widened to $11.38 from $10.21 with 93 loads of fabricated product sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle index for the seven days ended Friday was $135.17 per cwt, up $0.25. This compares with Monday’s Aug contract settlement of $137.05, up $1.30.