With less meat in cold storage than a year ago and fed cattle weighing more than a year ago, Tuesday’s monthly USDA Cold Storage report may be considered neutral to friendly to cattle futures on Wednesday, a market analyst said.
At first glance, the report might be considered bearish to cattle markets with frozen supplies up from a month ago, but this likely represents beef packers killing more cattle than a month ago, the analyst said.
THE REPORT
Total red meat supplies in freezers on Aug. 31 were up 25.868 million, or 2.72%, at 976.719 million from 950.851 million the previous month but were down 152.281 million, or 13.5% from 1.129 billion last year.
Total frozen poultry supplies on Aug. 31, were 1.421 billion pounds, up 14 million, or 1.00%, from 1.407 billion the previous month but down 35 million, or 2.40%, from 1.456 billion a year ago.
BEEF STOCKS MIXED
Total pounds of beef in freezers were 460.219 million, up 20.043 million, or 4.55%, from 440.176 million the previous month but down 9.657 million, or 2.06%, from 469.876 million last year.
The amount of boneless beef on ice Aug. 31 came to 428.631 million pounds, up 22.083 million, or 5.43%, from 406.548 million a month earlier but down 5.067 million, or 1.17%, from 433.698 million a year earlier.
Beef cuts in cold storage totaled 31.588 million pounds, down 2.040 million, or 6.07%, from 33.628 million a month earlier and down 4.590 million, or 12.7%, from 36.178 million a year earlier.
PORK SUPPLIES ALSO MIXED
Frozen pork supplies were 467.682 million pounds, up 7.047 million, or 1.53%, from 460.635 million the previous month but down 139.102 million, or 22.9%, from 606.784 million last year.
Stocks of pork bellies, at 30.533 million pounds were down 11.841 million, or 27.9%, from 42.374 million last month and down 15.190 million, or 33.2%, from 45.723 million last year.
The total volume of hams in cold storage came to 148.055 million pounds, up 11.434 million, or 8.37%, from 136.621 million a month earlier but down 54.399 million, or 26.9%, from 202.454 million a year earlier.
Total pounds of pork loins on ice were 39.714 million, up 2,525 million, or 6.79%, from 37.189 million a month earlier but down 2.657 million, or 6.27%, from 42.371 million a year earlier.
POULTRY STOCKS ALSO MIXED
Total stocks of chicken were up 6.128 million pounds, or 0.70%, at 882.981 million pounds from 876.853 million the previous month but down 6.606 million, or 0.74%, from 889.585 million last year.
Whole chickens on ice amounted to 29.136 million pounds, up 2.466 million, or 9.25%, from 26.670 million a month earlier and up 7.107 million, or 32.3%, from 22.029 million a year earlier.
Total pounds of turkey in freezers were up 2% from last month but down 6% from Aug. 31, 2019.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle trading last week was reported in the Plains at $103 to $104 per cwt on a live basis, up $2 from the previous week. Dressed-basis trading was reported at $162 to $165, per cwt, up $2 to $4.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $0.78 per cwt at $215.44, while select was up $0.48 at $206.30. The choice/select spread narrowed to $9.14 from $10.40 with 136 loads of fabricated product and 25 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was at $142.45 per cwt, up $0.40. This compares with Tuesday’s Sep contract settlement of $141.70 per cwt, up $0.62 and Oct’s settlement of $140.62, down $1.62.