USDA’s estimate of US corn production for the 2020-21 crop year is unchanged from November’s at 14.507 billion bushels based on a national average yield of 175.8 bushels an acre, the USDA said in its latest Feed Outlook.
The projected season average farm price for corn was unchanged at $4.00 a bushel.
Estimates of sorghum, barley and oats production also were unchanged in the report. Sorghum and barley export estimates were increased from last month based on less domestic food, seed and industrial use, freeing up additional supplies for the export market.
China’s estimated coarse grain imports for the 2020-21 crop year were raised 4.8 million tonnes from last month based on continued strong domestic demand for livestock feed. China total imports of corn were raised 3.5 million tonnes to 16.5 million while imports of sorghum and barley were raised as well.
Global coarse grain production remains effectively unchanged this month, while export estimates were raised 1.2 million tonnes. The increased global exports were predominantly because of Ukrainian and Brazilian corn, Australia and Canada barley and Argentine sorghum – all of which saw increased production estimates for 2020-21.
NO CHANGE TO DOMESTIC OUTLOOK
Through Nov. 15, in the National Agricultural Statistics Service Crop Progress report’s final corn harvest progress figures for 2020 95% of the US corn crop was harvested. This was well ahead of the 2019 and the average pace.
At the state level, most major corn-producing states saw the harvest finish the reporting season above or ahead of the average harvest pace. This was in contrast to 2019, which saw widespread harvest delays because of a late-planted crop as well as cold, wet weather conditions.
Domestic corn use for 2020-21 was projected at 12.175 billion bushels, unchanged from the November report. Food, seed and industrial use was seen unchanged at 6.475 billion bushels, of which 5.050 billion were projected to be used for fuel.
US ethanol production has been substantially lower since April, coinciding with lower gasoline consumption. According to the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration, ethanol production, net inputs and inventories of corn have been rising in recent weeks, despite gasoline production and consumption remaining below historical levels.
WORLD COARSE GRAIN PRODUCTION SEEN NEAR STEADY
Coarse grain production in 2020-21 could be fractionally higher than previous forecasts at 1.558 billion tonnes. All changes were made to foreign production estimates, but the changes made for each feed grain mostly were offsetting, as Northern Hemisphere summer crops conclude their harvest, and the Southern Hemisphere is in its summer planting season.
Projected world trade for 2020-21 was raised, primarily driven by increasing exports to China.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle trade was reported in the Plains this week at $105 per cwt on a live basis, down $1 to $3 from last week. Dressed-basis trading was seen last week at $165, down $3 to $5.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $0.87 per cwt at $208.82, while select was off $0.10 at $192.20. The choice/select spread narrowed to $16.62 from $17.39 with 134 loads of fabricated product and 40 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Tuesday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.05 to $1.10 a bushel over the Mar CBOT futures contract, which settled at $4.24 3/4 a bushel, up $0.00 3/4.
No delivery intentions for live cattle futures were posted Tuesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $136.69 per cwt, up $0.12. This compares with Tuesday’s Jan contract settlement of $140.10 per cwt, up $0.07.