Many US feedlots are thought to be up to date with their marketings of fed cattle, but unless they are growing cattle larger than they were last year on purpose, there may still be some that are not current.
Average live cattle and dressed carcass weights are higher than a year earlier, and they are much higher than the 2014-2018 average. This produces more beef that supplies the boxed-beef market with fewer cattle than would be the case a few years ago.
The result is restrained cattle markets. The fact that beef markets are strong (if off their November highs) is the only reason fed cattle prices are as firm as they are, a market analyst said.
PORK PULLS MEAT PRODUCTION UP
Through last week, the USDA’s weekly Estimated Weekly Meat Production Under Federal Inspection report showed total red meat production to be up 0.4% for the year at 53.319 billion pounds. But pork was the only sector of red meat production that was up.
Through last week:
–2020 pork production was up 1.8% at 27.353 billion pounds from 26.877 billion last year.
–Beef production was down 0.9% at 26.017 billion pounds from 25.241 billion.
–Calf/Veal production was down 15.5% at 59.8 million pounds from 70.8 million.
–Lamb/Mutton production was down 8.9% at 118.8 million pounds from 130.5 million.
Weekly changes to meat production show much the same thing, although beef production last week was up 0.3% from a year ago at 559.0 million pounds from 551.9 million.
Calf/Veal production last week totaled 1.1 million pounds, down 26.7% from 1.5 million a year earlier.
Pork production last week totaled 604.0 million pounds, up 1.1% from 604.9 million a year ago.
And Lamb/Mutton production, at 2.2 million pounds, was down 11.1% from 2.7 million a year earlier.
SLAUGHTER RATES DOWN
With pork production being the only red meat with more production this year than last year, it makes sense that slaughter rates for all livestock groups except hogs were down as of last week from a year earlier.
Cattle slaughter, at 31.288 million head was down 3.3% from 32.366 million last year. Calves/Vealer slaughter, at 430,000 head, was down 23.9% from 565,000; hog slaughter, at 127.124 million head, was up 0.7% from 126.270 million, and sheep/lamb slaughter, at 1.826 million head, was down 7.2% from 1.969 million.
WEIGHTS UP
With the exception of sheep and lambs, live and carcass weights last week were up from last year.
Beef carcasses weighed 842 pounds, versus 828; calves 136, versus 133; hogs 219, versus 214, and sheep 63, versus 63.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle trade was reported in the Plains last week at $105 to $108 per cwt on a live basis, steady to down $1 from the previous week. Dressed-basis trading was at $165 to $166, down $3 to $4.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $2.29 per cwt at $210.92, while select was up $2.99 at $197.26. The choice/select spread narrowed to $13.66 from $14.36 with 87 loads of fabricated product and 22 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Monday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.21 a bushel over the Mar CBOT futures contract, which settled at $4.40 a bushel, up $0.02 1/2.
No cattle contracts were tendered for delivery against the Dec contract Monday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $139.56 per cwt, up $1.08. This compares with Monday’s Jan contract settlement of $140.62 per cwt, up $0.17.