The USDA lowered its 2021 forecast for total red meat and poultry production from last month as lower expected pork, broiler and turkey production more than offsets slightly higher beef production estimates.
FIRST-HALF BEEF PRODUCTION FORECASTS UP
2021 beef production was estimated at 27.580 billion pounds, up 40.0 million, or 0.15%, from 27.540 billion in the February report. This also was up 428 million, or 1.58%, from 2020’s total of 27.152 billion pounds.
The first-half beef production forecast was raised from last month as lower expected first-quarter fed cattle slaughter was more than offset by higher first-half non-fed cattle slaughter, the USDA said. Second-half beef production predictions were adjusted to reflect a more rapid pace of first-quarter feedlot placements.
Total beef exports for this year were estimated at 3.145 billion pounds, unchanged from the February report but up 189 million, or 6.39%, from 2020’s 2.956 billion.
Beef imports this year were projected to be 2.935 billion pounds, down 70 million, or 2.33%, from 3.005 billion a month ago. This also was down 408 million pounds, or 12.2%, from 3.343 billion pounds last year.
PORK PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER
The 2021 pork production estimate of 28.680 billion pounds was lowered 30 million, or 0.10%, from 28.710 billion a month ago on a slower pace of hog slaughter although higher expected carcass weights in the first half of the year could temper the decline, the USDA said.
The new 2021 estimate, however, was up 380 million pounds, or 1.34%, from 2020’s production of 28.300 billion.
Pork exports for the year were estimated at 7.175 billion pounds, unchanged from the February report but down 107 million, or 1.47%, from 2020’s 7.282 billion.
2021 pork imports were left unchanged from February’s report at 945 million pounds, up 41 million, or 4.54%, from 2020’s 904 million.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
The 2021 broiler production forecast was lowered for the first quarter on to-date slaughter data; production estimates in outlying quarters were left unchanged from last month. The new yearly production estimate was 44.780 billion pounds, down 100 million, or 0.22%, from February’s 44.880 billion but up 197 million, or 0.44%, from 2020’s 44.583 billion.
Chicken exports this year were pegged at 7.305 billion pounds, down 85 million, or 1.15%, from the February estimate of 7.390 billion and down 66 million, or 0.90%, from 2020’s 7.371 billion.
Chicken imports were estimated at 132 million pounds, down 8 million, or 5.71%, from last month’s estimate of 140 million and down 13 million, or 8.97%, from last year’s 145 million.
The turkey production estimate was lowered to 5.690 billion pounds from 5.725 billion last month on recent hatchery and slaughter data. 2020 production was 5.743 billion pounds.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle trading this week was at $113 to $114 per cwt on a live basis, steady with last week. Dressed-basis trading last week was at $180, down $1 to $2.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $2.05 per cwt at $229.03, while select was up $0.67 at $223.80. The choice/select spread narrowed to $5.23 from $7.95 with 122 loads of fabricated product and 36 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Tuesday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.05 to $1.07 a bushel over the May CBOT futures contract, which settled at $5.45 3/4 a bushel, down $0.01 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $134.02 per cwt, up $0.10. This compares with Tuesday’s Mar contract settlement of $137.15 per cwt, up $1.80.