Led by beef, per-capita US red meat consumption is expected to decline through next year as competing meats do a better job of maintaining their customer bases.
The Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver made the predictions using data from the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service and the Economic Research Service.
The LMIC said per-capita US pork consumption this year was expected to extend 2020’s decline from the 2019 high but then rebound above 2019 in 2022.
BEEF CONSUMPTION PEAKED IN 2020
The latest swing high in per-capita beef consumption came in 2020 at 58.32 pounds, the LMIC said. This was the culmination of steady growth from the latest low in 2015 of 54.03 pounds per person.
However, last year’s peak in per-capita beef consumption falls far short of the largest recorded high of 67.77 pounds in 2002, the data showed.
The LMIC made no comments about the reasons for their predictions, but total cattle numbers appear to have peaked and are headed lower, according to USDA cattle census reports.
And, the life cycle of cattle is such that decisions to increase slaughter numbers and beef production take two to three years to accomplish, a market analyst said. So once the numbers turn south, turning them back up again is akin to turning the Titanic.
Cost could be another factor in predictions for lower beef consumption over the next two years, but not entirely.
US expenditures for beef, pork and chicken peaked in 2015 and then declined in 2016, the data showed. But expenditures for all three moved steady higher through 2019 with beef widening the gap between pork and chicken.
At some point, it would make sense to think beef would price itself out of at least part of its market, the analyst said. But as a percent of disposable income, beef expenditures didn’t widen the gap between pork and chicken appreciably from 1994 through 2019, holding relatively steady with its competitors.
PORK CONSUMPTION COULD REBOUND
After hitting its most recent high in 2019 at 52.36 pounds, per-capita pork consumption declined to 51.92 pounds last year, the LMIC said. From there, it was expected to dip to 51.73 pounds this year.
By 2022, however, per-capita pork consumption was expected to rebound to 52.62 pounds, the LMIC said. This compares favorably to the 1999 peak of 52.60 pounds.
Per-capita pork consumption went into a slump from 2010 through 2014, highlighted by the two lows in 2011 and 2014 of 45.72 and 45.87 pounds, respectively. 2015 saw a jump to 49.79 pounds. From there, it climbed to the 2019 peak.
Per-capita spending on pork rose from 1994 through 2019, holding very close to spending for chicken.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle trading this week was at $115 to $116 per cwt on a live basis, up $1 from last week. Dressed-basis trading was at $184 to $185 per cwt, up $3 to $4.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $1.61 per cwt at $236.45, while select was up $2.18 at $226.25. The choice/select spread narrowed to $10.20 from $10.77 with 77 loads of fabricated product and 25 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Wednesday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.25 to $1.27 a bushel over the May CBOT futures contract, which settled at $5.46 1/2 a bushel, down $0.06 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $135.62 per cwt, up $0.58. This compares with Thursday’s Mar contract settlement of $136.15 per cwt, up $0.37, and the Apr settlement of $144.22, up $1.77.