Total US red meat and poultry production for 2022 was forecast to be more than 2021 as higher pork and poultry production estimates more than offset lower beef production forecasts, said the USDA in its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report Wednesday.
Beef production was forecast lower on smaller year-over-year slaughter levels. Pork production was forecast to increase primarily on growth in farrowings and pigs per litter. Broiler production was forecast to be more than 2021 as producers respond to higher prices into 2022, but growth will be tempered by higher feed prices.
Turkey production was forecast to increase in response to favorable prices, but higher feed prices will likely dampen the rate of expansion.
Total beef and pork export forecasts were little changed from 2021. Beef imports were slightly lower, but pork imports were projected to increase slightly. Broiler and turkey exports were forecast higher on expected gains in foreign demand.
BEEF PRODUCTION CUTS FORECAST
Beef production this year was forecast at 27.900 billion pounds, up 260 million, or 0.94%, from 27.640 billion a month earlier and up 726 million, or 2.67%, from 27.174 billion in 2020. However, this year’s estimate fell 565 million pounds, or 2.07%, below the 2022 estimate of 27.335 billion pounds.
Beef exports this year were projected at 3.227 billion pounds, up 82 million, or 2.61%, from the April call for 3.145 billion. The 2022 beef export projection was 3.225 billion pounds, down from this year’s new estimate by 2 million pounds, or 0.06%.
Beef imports this year were forecast at 2.961 billion pounds, up 61 million, or 2.10%, from 2.900 billion in the April WASDE report and up 11 million, or 0.37%, from the 2022 estimate of 2.950 billion pounds.
PORK PRODUCTION GAINS FORECAST
Pork production this year was forecast at 28.221 billion pounds, down 54 million, or 0.19%, from the April forecast of 28.275 billion but down 82 million, or 0.29%, from the 2020 production of 28.303 billion.
Next year’s pork production was estimated at 28.545 billion pounds, up 324 million, or 1.15%, from this year’s new estimate.
Pork exports this year were estimated at 7.427 billion pounds, up 177 million, or 2.44%, from the April forecast of 7.250 billion and up from the 2022 forecast of 7.425 billion by 2 million pounds, or 0.03%.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION FORECAST MIXED
USDA estimates for chicken production this year was 44.765 billion pounds, down 15 million, or 0.03%, from the April estimate of 44.780 billion but up 182 million, or 0.41%, from 44.583 billion. This year’s estimate was below the 2022 estimate of 45.300 billion pounds by 535 million, or 1.18%.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle traded this week at $118 to $122 per cwt on a live basis, up $1 to $3 from last week. Dressed-basis trading was at $189 to $192.50, up $1 to $2.50.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was up $2.71 per cwt at $315.08, while select was up $0.82 at $297.16. The choice/select spread widened to $17.92 from $16.03 with 72 loads of fabricated product and 27 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Wednesday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.05 to $1.19 a bushel over the May CBOT futures contract, which settled at $7.57 1/2 a bushel, down $0.02.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $130.57 per cwt up $0.12. This compares with Wednesday’s May contract settlement of $136.75 per cwt, up $1.42.