Canada’s cattle on feed situation began a seasonal decline in April that generally continues through August, according to data from CanFax that was processed and published by the Livestock Marketing Information Center.
CanFax, a private market advisory group, surveys feedlots in Alberta and Saskatchewan to obtain the data. Most of the information is shared only with members, but the total on-feed number and the number of placements are shared with the LMIC for publication.
ON FEED NUMBERS MIXED
CanFax data showed the number of cattle populating Canada’s feed yards on May 1 totaled 988,761, down 22,239, or 2.20%, from 1.011 million a month earlier and down 57,239, or 5.47%, from the May 2020 total of 1.046 million but up 72,035, or 7.86%, from the 2015-2019 average of 916,726.
If the number of cattle on feed in Canada continues to follow the general seasonal trend, it will remain above the 2015-2019 average but below the 2020 line. The bottom will come with the Sep. 1 inventory and rise from there to the annual high in December.
There is no reason to think that the seasonal trend will not continue, barring unforeseen things like disease or major weather issues, a market analyst said. The summer and winter seasons are so pronounced there, that there is little wiggle room for change to seasonal movements, especially for placements, which rely heavily on grass availability.
PLACEMENTS ALSO FOLLOW TREND
Canada’s feedlot placements in April continued to follow the 2015-2019 average, the data showed.
Total placements were pegged at 123,098 head in April, down 48,127, or 28.1%, from 171,225 in March, up 10,173, or 9.01%, from 112,925 in April of 2020, and up from the previous five-year average of 118,605.
It’s interesting that monthly feedlot placements in Canada continued to hold very near the five-year average last year and so far this year, yet the feedlots’ population last year was above the average, and this year’s on-feed number also is more than the average, albeit below last year, the analyst said.
It’s evident that cattle are spending more time munching grain in the lots than in previous years, he said. This may be because the calves were placed at lighter weights, taking longer to reach full slaughter readiness or because feedlot managers are feeding them to heavier weights.
If monthly placements continue to hold on the average, they will decline through July and begin to rise to the October high near 350,000 head. From there, they will fall to the December low just fewer than 100,000 head.
In general, January, July and December have the fewest number of feedlot placements with March and October showing the peaks.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
Fed cattle traded this week at $118 to $120 per cwt on a live bases, steady to $1 lower than last week. Dressed-basis trading was at $188, down $1 to 3.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $2.09 per cwt at $329.92, while select was up $0.87 at $304.26. The choice/select spread widened to $25.66 from $24.44 with 62 loads of fabricated product and 31 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA reported Tuesday that basis bids for corn from livestock feeding operations in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.05 to $1.17 a bushel over the Jul futures, which settled at $6.20 1/4 a bushel, down $0.37.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $136.31 per cwt up $0.65. This compares with Tuesday’s May contract settlement of $136.62 per cwt, up $0.35 and Aug’s $156.67, up $2.55.