A seasonal decline in US weekly beef production begins next week, but the decline is so uneven many may miss it until it drops off for the Memorial Day holiday week.
BEEF PRODUCTION SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS YEARS
A Livestock Marketing Information Center graph of weekly federally inspected beef production data from the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service and the National Agricultural Statistics Service showed that weekly FI beef production last week totaled 527 million pounds after production of 512.1 million pounds the week before and 444 million in the first week of the month.
Last week’s production was up 18.6 million pounds, or 3.66%, from 508.4 million pounds the previous week but down 5.94 million, or 1.11%, from the previous five-year average of 532.94 million.
Last year, weekly beef production dipped in the second week of January but recovered to peak the second week of February. From there, it declined into March where it waffled higher into spring before dropping for the Memorial Day holiday.
PRODUCTION RELATES TO SLAUGHTER
The weekly beef production relates to the weekly federally inspected slaughter data, although not directly since slaughter weights (and the amount of beef carried on each carcass) tend to ebb and flow with the seasons and the age of the cattle being sent to slaughter.
The first week’s USDA-reported federally inspected cattle slaughter this year was 504,893 head, followed by 589,000 the second week and 603,000 the third week.
Last year, those totals came to 542,462 head, 544,902 the second and 605,147 last week. And the 2019-2023 average weekly kills came to 584,590 head, 640,994 head and 641,277 head.
So, this year’s weekly slaughter totals have wound around last year’s while falling below the five-year average.
Weekly slaughter and beef production totals tend to dip in April, recover in May and then drop to the Memorial Day holiday seasonal low. However, last year, neither happened with slaughter and beef production rising unevenly into the holiday week.
CARCASS WEIGHTS UP
Rising beef carcass weights became a real influence on US beef production last year, and dressed weights started 2025 on a higher note as well.
Last year, dressed weights began to diverge from the five-year average in mid-February and really never looked back. Where average weights tend to decline into June, last year the dip occurred late, in July, but it still was higher than the average.
Carcass weights began this year much higher than either last year or the previous five-year average, with last week at 876 pounds, up 34, or 3.88%, from 842 pounds last year and up 43.2 pounds, or 5.19%, from the average of 832.8 pounds.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $201.58 per cwt to $203.99, compared with last week’s range of $199.88 to $208.09 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $315.83 per cwt to $321.61, compared with $312.04 to $319.72.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $0.03 per cwt at $332.02 while select was off $1.56 at $317.99. The choice/select spread widened to $14.03 from $12.50 with 121 loads of fabricated product and 18 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $357.20 per cwt, and 50% beef was $115.75.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.20 to $1.35 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.84 1/4, down $0.05 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $278.18 per cwt, up $0.16. This compares with Wednesday’s Jan contract settlement of $277.05, up $2.65.