Total US red meat and poultry production for 2026 Monday was forecast in the USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report to be lower than in 2025.
Total red meat and poultry production forecasts for 2025 were reduced from last month, with beef, broiler, pork and turkey production forecast lower.
2026 BEEF PRODUCTION SEEN LOWER
Beef production for 2026, at 25.140 billion pounds, was forecast lower than 2025’s 26.423 billion pounds on tighter cattle supplies, fewer available fed steers and heifers because of new import restrictions on cattle from Mexico and expectations for reduced cattle slaughter.
The 2025 beef production forecast was lowered from 26.700 billion pounds in April’s report as higher dressed weights more than offset reduced steer and heifer slaughter because of a renewed suspension of cattle imports from Mexico.
For 2026, beef export expectations of 2.495 billion pounds were forecast lower than the 2025 forecast of 2.663 billion pounds, as tighter domestic supplies reduce international competitiveness.
For 2025, beef export forecasts were reduced from the April report’s 2.685 billion pounds, as higher-than-expected official reported trade data for the first quarter was more than offset by forecasts for tighter available supplies for the second half of the year.
2026 PORK PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
Pork production next year, at 28.370 billion pounds, was forecast higher than 2025’s 27.996 billion on forecasts for increased hog supplies, driven primarily by steadily increasing rates of pigs per litter, as well as higher dressed weights.
Estimated pork production for 2025 was reduced from April’s estimate of 28.075 billion pounds on a slower rate of slaughter expected for the second half of the year although it was offset slightly by expectations of increased production in the second quarter.
2026 pork exports of 7.140 billion pounds were forecast to increase from the 2025 estimate of 7.058 billion, in line with higher production.
2025 pork export expectations were raised from 6.955 billion in the April report on higher first-quarter results, with improved export demand carried into the second half of the year
2026 CHICKEN PRODUCTION SEEN HIGHER
Broiler production for 2026 was forecast to increase based on favorable producer returns.
The 2025 broiler production estimate was reduced on official data reported for the first quarter of 2025, with the reductions carried forward for the remainder of the year.
2026 broiler export expectations were higher on increased supplies, although growth was expected to be constrained by robust domestic demand and international competition from other major exporters.
Broiler export expectations this year also were raised on recent trade data and improved export demand for the remainder of the year.
CTTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $220.35 per cwt to $220.39, compared with last week’s range of $216.84 to $222.23 per cwt. FOB dressed steers, and heifers went for $344.71 per cwt to $348.77, compared with $336.28 to $357.17.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $2.17 per cwt at $348.14 while select was up $4.06 at $335.23. The choice/select spread narrowed to $12.91 from $14.80 with 89 loads of fabricated product and 26 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $376.94 per cwt, and 50% beef was $122.17.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were down $0.01 at $1.15 to $1.25 a bushel over the Jul corn contract, which settled at $4.48, down $0.01 3/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $301.03 per cwt, up $4.89. This compares with Monday’s May contract settlement of $303.10, up $5.12.