While there are seasonalities to the flow of wholesale beef and pork primal cuts, room remains for much diversity from year to year for each.
Choice beef carcass negotiated prices appear to have peaked for the year, but some of the cuts may not have done so. The same for pork, although pork may see a second peak surpass the one already set for 2025.
CHOICE BEEF PAST ITS 2025 PRIME
On a carcass basis, the USDA’s reported weekly price for choice 600- to 900-pound beef appears to have peaked for the year. It topped out at $395.19 per cwt the last week of June.
That’s not to say another peak could reform and surpass that peak, but a graph of the weekly prices from the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver would make that seem unlikely. It’s true that last year’s weekly high price of $329.96 occurred the same week as the average, but a secondary peak in the last week of October at $322.13 per cwt challenged the July high.
And last year’s choice cutout price did not show the typical June/July standout peak that is evident in the 2019-2023 average.
PORK CUTOUT HAS DIFFERENT PEAKS
The USDA weekly negotiated pork cutout value as reported by the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service and graphed by the LMIC shows some distinct, but different, seasonalities.
The annual peak in the weekly price, according to the 2019-2023 average, occurs the first week of August at $104.33 per cwt.
But that isn’t the whole story. There is another standout peak in the third week of May at $101.54 per cwt.
Those two peaks stand out on a line graph because they tower above the peaks and valleys of the rest of the year, which would average out to a nice bell curve with lows in January and December.
This year, the weekly pork cutout hasn’t behaved well. It started out OK, more or less following the five-year average trend until late April when it began to rise rapidly, easily surpassing the average and last year with a top of $120.72 the last week of June.
From there, it fell to $112.16 the first week of July, only to regain strength back to $118.26 two weeks ago.
Where does it go from there? The timing is right for an uneven decline into a September/October mini rally followed by a decline into December. But it could just as easily rally to challenge the June high before fading into the sunset.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $237.86 per cwt to $238.08, compared with last week’s range of $233.00 to $241.92 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $377.13 per cwt to $383.28, compared with $365.34 to $382.74.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $1.10 per cwt at $364.32 while select was up $1.09 at $341.59. The choice/select spread widened to $22.73 from $22.72 with 81 loads of fabricated product and 29 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $418.49 per cwt, and 50% beef was $183.84.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.45 to $1.60 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $3.87, down $0.02 1/2.
No live cattle delivery intentions were posted.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $335.82 per cwt, down $0.07. This compares with Monday’s Aug contract settlement of $335.40, up $0.82.