In a report Thursday, the USDA Foreign Agriculture Service office in Mexico City, Mexico, said suspending live cattle exports to the US because of New World Screwworm was expected to redirect animals to domestic feedlots, increasing domestic cattle slaughter next year.
That increased domestic beef production likely will enable a growth in exports to the US and Japan, the FAS said. Rising demand for beef and pork also was expected, driven by population growth and expanding commercial consumption.
MEXICO’S BEEF PRODUCTION TO GROW
Mexico’s beef producers were expected to increase domestic slaughter and beef production to 7.6 million head and 2.5 million tonnes Carcass Weight Equivalent, respectively, this year, an increase of 6%, the FAS report said.
The 2025 calf crop was estimated to increase 1% to 8.7 million head, the FAS said. Expansion was being led by higher conversion to commercial production systems, good pasture and feed availability, and strong beef demand from the US.
The 2026 calf crop was forecast to remain flat at 8.7 million head, the FAS said. In northern states such as Sonora, Chihuahua and Sinaloa, cattle with improved genetics were expected to replace those from previously drought affected areas.
The closure of cross-border trade was expected to dampen prospects to further expand operations, however, the FAS said.
Beef consumption was projected to rise to 2.4 million tonnes CWE, a 5% annual increase, supported by population growth and rising demand from commercial and meat processing sectors, the FAS said.
Beef imports were forecast at 300,000 tonnes CWE, a 5% increase, while exports were forecast at 350,000 tonnes CWE, an 11% increase, as greater domestic supply allows Mexico to respond to global demand.
PIG CROP PROJECTED HIGHER
The Mexican pig crop was forecast to increase to 21.1 million head in 2026, a 2% increase, the FAS said. A primary factor for the increase was seen as investments in improved genetics and biosecurity in recent years.
Hog slaughter and pork production this year were forecast to rise to 19.0 million head and 1.5 million tonnes CWE, respectively, the FAS said.
Growing household and commercial demand were key contributors to increased hog slaughter and pork production, the FAS said. Pork consumption was projected to rise 4% to 2.8 million tonnes CWE, while imports were expected to increase to 1.6 million tonnes CWE, an increase of 3%.
Meanwhile, pork exports were forecast at 210,000 tonnes CWE, a decline of 3%, because of lost market share to competitors in Asia, the FAS said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $239.00 per cwt to $245.20, compared with last week’s range of $236.22 to $244.13 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $373.13 per cwt to $383.79, compared with $369.86 to $385.93.
The USDA choice cutout Thursday was up $2.57 per cwt at $414.41 while select was off $1.87 at $385.84. The choice/select spread widened to $28.57 from $24.13 with 77 loads of fabricated product and 21 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $432.14 per cwt, and 50% beef was $159.74.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.30 to $1.40 a bushel over the Sep corn contract, which settled at $3.85 1/2, up $0.03.
Twenty steer deliveries were retendered at one and reclaimed at one.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Wednesday was $365.23 per cwt, up $4.55. This compares with Thursday’s Aug contract settlement of $365.92, up $0.47, and Sep’s $361.80, down $3.60.