The USDA’s new forecast for 2025 red meat and poultry production was reduced from last month, with lower beef and pork production more than offsetting raised poultry production forecasts.
The forecasts came in Friday’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report from the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service.
BEEF PRODUCTION FORECAST LOWERED
Expected 2025 beef production was lowered 100 million pounds, or 0.39%, to 25.826 billion pounds from 25.926 billion last month on reduced steer and heifer slaughter and lower cow slaughter for the third and fourth quarters. It also was 1.158 billion pounds, or 4.29%, less than last year’s 26.984 billion pounds.
Forecast beef production in 2026 was raised 20 million pounds, or 0.08%, to 25.490 billion pounds from 25.470 billion last month, with higher fed cattle slaughter more than offsetting lower bull slaughter.
The 2025 beef import forecast was raised to 5.364 billion pounds from 5.274 billion last month and up from 4.635 billion last year on continued strong demand for lean processing beef, but the forecast for 2026 was unchanged at 4.950 billion pounds. Exports were reduced for 2025 and 2026 because of expectations for fewer supplies and increased price competition.
PORK PRODUCTION ESTIMATE REDUCED
The USDA 0also said the 2025 pork production forecast was reduced 180 million pounds, or 0.65%, to 27.567 billion pounds from 27.747 billion last month on an expected slower rate of slaughter for the third and fourth quarters and lighter dressed weights for the third quarter. The new estimate also was down 222 million pounds, or 0.80%, from 27.789 billion pounds last year.
The pork production forecast for 2026 was left unchanged at 28.380 billion pounds.
Pork export estimates were unchanged for 2025 and 2026 at 6.982 and 7.000 billion pounds, respectively.
The USDA is scheduled to release its Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on Sep. 25, providing further indications of hog supplies available for slaughter in the first half of 2026.
CHICKEN PRODUCTION FORECAST RAISED
This year’s broiler production estimate was raised to 47.925 billion pounds, up 163 million, or 0.34%, from 47.762 billion last month because of increases in recent production and hatchery data, as well as higher expected weights. This was up 931 million pounds, or 1.98%, from 2024’s production of 46.994 billion pounds.
The increase was carried into the broiler production forecast for 2026, which was pegged at 48.300 billion pounds up from 48.150 billion in last month’s report.
Broiler exports were raised for 2025 to 6.506 billion pounds from 6,481 billion last month based on recent trade data, but 2026 was unchanged at 6.610 billion.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers last week ranged from $242.51 per cwt to $246.00, compared with the previous week’s range of $242.00 to $246.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $381.50 per cwt to $383.82, compared with $379.65 to $387.65.
The USDA choice cutout Friday was down $0.75 per cwt at $400.04 while select was off $1.51 at $378.44. The choice/select spread widened to $21.61 from $20.84 with 100 loads of fabricated product and 18 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef was $433.88 per cwt, and 50% beef was $156.29.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $1.05 to $1.20 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.30, up $0.10 1/4.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Thursday was $363.08 per cwt, down $0.40. This compares with Friday’s Sep contract settlement of $350.40, down $4.82.