Now that there is no beef-centered holiday coming up, consumers appear to be backing off their purchases of beef.
Weekly USDA-reported choice boxed beef prices are off what likely will be their annual highs. The trend is lower, although they remain much higher than last year or the 2019-2023 average.
WEAKER TREND IN STORE
While much is made in the livestock and meat trade about holiday beef demand leading up to the year-end holidays, this demand is centered on the middle meats, particularly the rib. In truth, many of the other cuts show some serious price declines, which weakens the average, especially since there is a larger percentage of each carcass that is made up of these non-holiday cuts.
Last week, the USDA reported the negotiated choice boxed beef price for 600- to 900-pound carcasses at $376.60 per cwt, down from $389.44 a week earlier and down from this year’s top four weeks earlier at $413.60 per cwt.
But before getting discouraged by the price drop, it would be important to note the price difference between this year, last year and the five-year average calculated by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver, a market analyst said.
The weekly price in that same week last year was $298.98 per cwt, and the previous five-year average was $255.35.
Plus, the 2019-2023 average weekly choice boxed beef price has a tendency to fade during the colder months. According to the five-year average, the annual weekly choice boxed beef price usually peaks about the third week of May before falling off and yielding a secondary peak about the first week of September.
Last year, showed no major peaks or valleys as the weekly choice boxed beef price meandered a little higher all year long, ending at $319.58 per cwt after starting at $278.86 and hitting an annual high the first week of July at $329.96.
END CUTS WEAKENING
The surprising part of all this is the weakness being shown in the end cuts and less-talked-about cuts like the chuck, the round, and 50% lean boneless beef prices, the market analyst said.
For instance, chuck roll prices last week were quoted at $515.77 per cwt, down from $593.89 the previous week and this year’s peak at $685.34 just a month ago. In fact, a graph of these prices shows this product is in danger of piercing last year’s price line. Last week’s price was down $169.57, or 24.7%, from the peak – a significant drop in just four weeks.
Bottom round prices were reported by the USDA last week at $396.34 per cwt, up from the previous week’s $391.06 but down from the 2025 high of $465.83 three weeks earlier.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $235.06 per cwt to $238.44, compared with last week’s range of $238.09 to $244.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $372.71 per cwt to $375.71, compared with $373.45 to $379.73.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was down $0.35 per cwt at $371.03 while select was down $1.64 at $347.25. The choice/select spread widened to $23.78 from $21.79 with 107 loads of fabricated product and 15 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $422.60 per cwt, and 50% beef was $140.30.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were down $0.05 at $1.05 to $1.20 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.15 1/2, down $0.06.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $365.33 per cwt, down $2.28. This compares with Tuesday’s Oct contract settlement of $361.02, up $4.82.