Australian beef production was forecast to ease slightly in 2026 following an estimated record high in 2025, the USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service said in an annual report, but output was expected to remain near historic highs.
Continued strong global demand for Australian beef underpinned the outlook, particularly from the US, the FAS report said. With the US beef industry heading toward a herd rebuild, tighter cattle supplies were expected to elevate US demand for imported beef.
AUSTRALIA WELL POSITIONED
Australia’s 2021-to-2023 herd rebuild positioned the industry to meet global demand that has intensified since 2024, the FAS said. Australia’s cattle slaughter was estimated to reach record levels in 2025 before easing marginally in 2026.
While female slaughter rates were forecast to remain high in 2026, they were expected to decline slightly as the effect on the breeding herd becomes more apparent, the FAS said.
Beef exports were forecast to ease modestly in 2026 in line with slightly lower production but remain at the second-highest level on record — around 15% more than the previous record set in 2024, the FAS said.
TARIF EFFECT
The US is the primary driver of beef export demand and has placed an additional 50% import tariff on beef from Brazil, its largest supplier in the first half of 2025, bringing the total effective out-of-quota tariff up to 76.4%, the FAS said. This was expected to boost demand for Australian beef in the second half of 2025 and into 2026.
However, Australian processors were reported to be operating at full capacity, leaving little room for further increases in production and exports, the FAS said. Live cattle exports were forecast to remain strong but ease slightly in 2026.
Indonesia, Australia’s primary live cattle market, was seeking to expand meat supplies to support its Free Nutritious Meal Initiative, the FAS said. Brazil recently gained access to Indonesia for live cattle and beef, potentially heightening competition.
Strong global demand for beef also was expected to lift Australian cattle prices, which could draw more feeder cattle from Far North Queensland and the Northern Territory into feedlots, reducing availability for live export trade and potentially raising prices for live cattle importers.
PORK TRADE POTENTIAL UP
Australian pork production was forecast to grow around 1% in 2026, marking the fourth straight year of growth, the FAS said. This increase was expected to lift domestic consumption by a similar margin, with pork imports and exports also projected to edge higher.
The US, which in 2024 regained its role as Australia’s primary source of pork imports, was expected to maintain its dominant position in 2026.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $235.06 per cwt to $241.00, compared with last week’s range of $238.09 to $244.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $372.30 per cwt to $375.71, compared with $373.45 to $379.73.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $2.56 per cwt at $368.47 while select was down $0.36 at $346.89. The choice/select spread narrowed to $21.58 from $23.78 with 128 loads of fabricated product and 22 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $422.60 per cwt, and 50% beef was $137.94.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were down $0.05 at $1.05 to $1.20 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.16 1/2, up $0.01.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $364.71 per cwt, down $0.62. This compares with Wednesday’s Oct contract settlement of $358.90, down $2.12.