Weekly wholesale prices for fresh, 90% lean beef from the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service appear to have begun a seasonal slide into the end of the year, although prices remain higher than either last year or the 2019-2023 average.
The data was compiled and graphed by the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Denver.
The USDA’s weekly wholesale price for 50% lean boneless beef already made its seasonal top and continues to decline unevenly apparently aiming for an even lower level by the end of the year.
PRICE SPREAD WIDENING
The difference, or spread, between weekly prices for 90% lean and 50% lean boneless beef continues to widen because 50% prices are falling faster than those of 90% beef.
Last week’s price for 90% boneless beef was $426.01 per cwt, down $2.98, or 0.69%, from $428.99 a week earlier and down $9.30, or 2.14%, from the 2025 high of $435.31 per cwt set the first week of September. However, last week’s price was up $75.11, or 21.4%, from $350.90 per cwt in the same week last year and up $177.17, or 71.2%, from $248.84, the price in the same week of the 2019-2023 average.
The weekly price for 50% lean boneless beef last week was reported at $139.42 per cwt, up $2.88, or 2.11%, from $136.54 a week earlier but down $122.57, or 46.8%, from the 2025 high of $261.99 the second week of July. Last week’s price also was up $70.38, or 101.9%, from $69.04 per cwt in the same week last year and up $70.08, or 101.1%, from the previous five-year average of $69.34.
CORRELATIONS DIFFICULT
The graphs illustrate clearly that the weekly average price for 50% lean boneless beef began its annual descent earlier than that for 90% lean beef. But it’s difficult to make anything but general correlations to last year or the previous five-year average.
With 50% lean boneless beef, for instance, the weekly price usually makes an annual peak the second week of May, drops sharply for a couple of weeks and drifts off toward a December low. However, last year, the weekly price peaked the third week of August before descending to the fall low in October followed by a small rebound into December.
The graph for 90% lean boneless beef appears to be following last year’s trendline fairly closely, but with 50% falling off so sharply and news reports that consumers already are considering spending less this holiday season than last year, it’s possible that 50% lean beef could rise at the expense of 90% pricing, a market analyst said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $235.72 per cwt to $237.11, compared with last week’s range of $230.70 to $241.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $365.20 per cwt to $371.48, compared with $360.27 to $375.71.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $0.51 per cwt at $364.42 while select was up $0.80 at $350.55. The choice/select spread narrowed to $13.87 from $14.16 with 118 loads of fabricated product and 27 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $423.38 per cwt, and 50% beef was $139.62.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $0.90 to $1.15 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.13, up $0.02 1/4.
Ten heifer delivery notices were posted Tuesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $373.02 per cwt, up $4.02. This compares with Tuesday’s Oct contract settlement of $380.17, up $4.67.