Overall consumer beef demand continues strong in the fall and winter, but the upcoming holiday season changes the relative demand for various beef products, said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University livestock marketing specialist, in a letter called Cow-Calf Corner.
This year, wholesale and retail beef prices will be supported by that strong seasonal demand and continued decreases in beef production, Peel said.
PRICES PEAK AT LABOR DAY
Boxed beef cutout values peaked around the Labor Day holiday and fell through September, he said. On a daily basis, the choice boxed beef cutout peaked on Sep. 3 at $416.01 per cwt and bottomed a month later on Oct. 3 at $362.27 per cwt before stabilizing.
Fall is when beef demand transitions from a grilling focus to cool-weather crock pot and oven cooking and back-to-school restaurant traffic, Peel said.
Beef tenderloin, after being relatively weak in 2024 and early 2025, has increased sharply in the third quarter, Peel said. Tenderloins are typically strong in the fall and winter as restaurant traffic increases, with a bump in May for the Mother’s Day holiday.
Wholesale ribeye was strong going into summer and again in the fall in anticipation of restaurant holiday prime rib demand, he said. Strip loins were very strong in the first half of the year, then dropped sharply mid-summer before stabilizing the last few weeks.
Top sirloin, popular for summer grilling, peaked mid-summer and has declined seasonally through the third quarter of the year, Peel said. All of these wholesale values were well above year-ago levels.
END CUTS STRENGTHEN
USDA data show strength in chuck arm roasts and eye of round prices, he said. Chuck and round products have more diverse demands compared to steak items.
Though not as popular during summer grilling, chuck and round products may be demanded for value retail cuts, at-home slow-cooking, exports or for grinding, Peel said.
Very strong prices for lean trimmings this year have pulled more round products into ground beef markets this year, he said. Summer ground beef demand has likely peaked seasonally, but tight lean supplies will keep ground beef prices elevated.
Another analyst said ground beef tends to hold value in current markets because of its versatility. Various skillet preparations are sold currently allowing families to have a variety of meals, all based around ground beef.
Brisket values have decreased from an early fall peak but remain popular year-around, he said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $239.18 per cwt to $249.43, compared with last week’s range of $237.30 to $243.18 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $375.21 per cwt to $375.21, compared with $368.29 to $381.29.
The USDA choice cutout Monday was up $2.12 per cwt at $377.88 while select was up $3.69 at $361.66. The choice/select spread narrowed to $16.22 from $17.79 with 97 loads of fabricated product and 20 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $411.08 per cwt, and 50% beef was $157.44.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged to down $0.05 at $0.95 to $1.10 a bushel over the Dec corn contract, which settled at $4.28 3/4, up $0.05 1/2.
No new live cattle delivery intentions were tendered Monday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Friday was $367.55 per cwt, up $0.47. This compares with Monday’s Oct contract settlement of $345.50, down $8.80, and Nov’s $338.45, down 13.75.