The USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand report Tuesday forecast 2025 red meat and poultry production to be higher as stronger poultry and beef production estimates were offset partially by lower pork production.
Third-quarter production figures reflect official slaughter and production data, the report said.
2025 BEEF PRODUCTION ESTIMATE RAISED
The 2025 beef production estimate for this year was raised to 25.950 billion pounds from November\s 25.756 billion on a faster rate of fourth-quarter slaughter for fed and non-fed cattle as well as expected higher dressed weights. However, this was down from 2024’s 26.984 billion pounds.
The 2026 beef production forecast was raised to 25.725 billion pounds from 25.390 billion in November, primarily on higher dressed weights.
The beef import forecast for 2025 was lowered on official trade data reported through August, the WASDE report said. The beef import forecast for 2026 was raised, as the removal of certain tariffs on beef products from key beef suppliers was expected to encourage additional shipments to the US.
Expected beef exports for 2025 were reduced based on recent trade data, with the reductions carrying over into the second half of 2026, the report said.
2025 PORK PRODUCCTION ESTIMATE LOWERED
The pork production forecast for this year was lowered to 27.462 billion pounds from 27.487 billion in November on a slower rate of slaughter through early December, the WASDE report said. However, this was down from 2024’s 27.789 billion pounds.
The forecast for pork production in 2026 was unchanged at 27.475 billion pounds.
The USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, scheduled to be published Dec. 23, could provide estimates of the pig crops and producer farrowing intentions affecting 2026 production.
Pork export forecasts were lowered for 2025, as lower third-quarter shipments based on recent trade data were offset partially by higher expected demand in the fourth quarter. The stronger demand was expected to carry into 2026, increasing 2026 pork exports.
2025 CHICKEN PRODUCTION ESTIMAATE RAISED
The 2025 broiler production estimate was raised to 48.086 billion pounds from 47.965 billion in November based on official data through September, but no change was made to the fourth-quarter forecast, the report said. The new estimate was up from 2024’s 46.994 billion pounds.
The forecast for 2026 broiler production was raised to 48.550 billion pounds from November’s 48.375 billion, as the uptick during the second-half of 2025 suggested expansion into next year, the USDA said.
Broiler export expectations in 2025 ware increased based on recent trade data, with the increases expected to carry over into 2026.
The turkey production estimate for this year was increased on official third-quarter production totals, partially offset by lower fourth-quarter production from outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza culling through early December.
Turkey production for 2026 was lowered, as HPAI-related culling was expected to reduce the breeding flock and production capacity, the WASDE report said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $221.66 per cwt to $227.00, compared with last week’s range of $218.52 to $225.00 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $339.66 per cwt to $354.27, compared with $331.92 to $349.49.
The USDA choice cutout Tuesday was up $0.14 per cwt at $361.04 while select was down $0.57 at $348.03. The choice/select spread widened to $13.01 from $12.30 with 121 loads of fabricated product and 20 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $395.84 per cwt, and 50% beef was $156.80.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were steady to down $0.05 at $0.90 to $1.10 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.48, up $0.04 1/4.
Fifteen steer contracts were tendered for delivery Tuesday. Fifteen more were retendered at one.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Monday was $344.50 per cwt, up $1.44. This compares with Tuesday’s Jan contract settlement of $335.50, down $0.15.