Wholesale beef prices remain elevated as consumers continue to pick up grocery offerings from the meat case. All primal cuts except ribeyes are higher in price than last year, and all are higher than the 2019-2023 average.
In a Beef Magazine article Wednesday, industry consultant Nevil Speer said retail beef demand grew in the period between 2015 and 2025.
“The US population has grown by 20 million-plus people – and all the while beef disappearance (“consumption”) has grown by about five pounds per capita, and the inflation-adjusted retail price has increased by about $0.50 a pound,” Speer said.
Another market analyst said the inflation-adjusted price stability is one of the two main reasons beef demand remains so strong in the face of inflation. The other is that more choice and prime graded beef is available to consumers.
RIBEYES ELEVATED
Last week, the USDA reported a weekly average wholesale price for boneless ribeyes of $14.46 per pound, down from $15.61 in the same week a year ago but up from the 2019-2023 average of $11.22 a pound. However, the price being down from 2024 is deceiving since the price last year took a sharp bounce to the annual high last week and then dropped in the following week.
This year, the weekly market for boneless ribeyes tended to follow an exaggerated version of the 2019-2023 average. Rallies were more pronounced as well as declines. If the market continues to follow the five-year average trend, the wholesale price for ribeyes will drop for the next two weeks.
CHUCKS MODERATELY HIGHER
After taking an uncharacteristic bounce to the annual high in August, the weekly average wholesale price for beef chuck rolls is close to, but higher than, the same week last year and the previous five-year average. Last week’s average price was $4.53 per pound, versus the previous week’s $4.33, last year’s $4.06 and the 2019-2023 average of $3.19.
There is no telling where this price will go in the last two weeks of the year, the market analyst said. On average, it should already have dropped a bit only to rally in the last week. But, last year, the price rose into the end of the year.
BOTTOM ROUNDS DROPPING
If there’s a sour note in the bullishness that is wholesale beef prices, it’s bottom rounds. After peaking in the first week of September, this primal has struggled, finally giving ground over the last two months.
The USDA price last week was $3.29 a pound, compared with $3.64 a week earlier, $3.16 a year earlier and the five-year average of $2.43.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $229.01 per cwt to $232.14, compared with last week’s range of $218.00 to $227.15 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $353.34 per cwt to $363.03, compared with $339.66 to $354.27.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $2.79 per cwt at $356.09 while select was off $2.67 at $346.43. The choice/select spread narrowed to $9.66 from $9.78 with 140 loads of fabricated product and 31 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $392.50 per cwt, and 50% beef was $128.76.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $0.90 to $1.10 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.40 1/2, up $0.04.
Twenty steer contracts were tendered for delivery Wednesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $349.79 per cwt, up $0.94. This compares with Wednesday’s Jan contract settlement of $341.52, down $1.80.