As 2025 wraps up, there still is little indication of significant heifer retention by cow/calf operators for herd rebuilding, although some retention may be beginning slowly, said Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock market specialist, in a letter called Cow-Calf Corner.
SMALLEST BEEF REPLACEMENT INVENTORY EVER
The July USDA Cattle (Inventory) report showed the smallest beef replacement heifer inventory in the history of the report back to 1973, although no comparison to last year was possible since the report was not available last year, Peel said.
Additionally, the October USDA Cattle on Feed report showed the percentage of heifers in feedlots was unchanged from July and still above average as it has been since late 2018, he said.
It is true that heifer slaughter was down about 6.6% through November and was falling faster than steer slaughter, which was down about 4.4% for the year through November, he said.
A market analyst said there seems to be an undercurrent of cautious desire to rebuild herds. However, these desires are being tempered by a variety of factors, not the least of which is continued drought in many areas.
Cow/calf producers also are shying away from herd rebuilding investments because of the high value of steers AND heifers for the feedlot, the analyst said. It’s hard to pass up the profit and the passing off of any health or death risks at current prices.
A LITTLE HISTORY
Average heifer slaughter peaked most recently in January 2023 and has declined about 9.0% as of October 2025, Peel said.
Heifer slaughter is quite variable and does decrease during periods of herd expansion, Peel said. However, at this point the decrease in heifer slaughter is not enough to indicate significant heifer retention.
The ratio of steer to heifer slaughter over the same 49-year period, he said. The obvious spikes in the ratio when plotted on a line graph correspond to herd expansions in the years 1979-1982; 1990-1996; 2004-2006, and 2014-2019.
The ratio increases when heifer slaughter drops relative to steer slaughter during herd rebuilding. Peel said. The current steer-to-heifer ratio has begun to increase but appears to indicate only the slightest beginning of heifer retention.
Additional heifer retention may build in 2026 but the pace appears to be slow, he said.
CATTLE, BEEF RECAP
The USDA reported formula and contract base prices for live FOB steers and heifers this week ranged from $226.55 per cwt to $230.48, compared with last week’s range of $227.71 to $230.49 per cwt. FOB dressed steers and heifers went for $358.31 per cwt to $362.75, compared with $359.54 to $363.78.
The USDA choice cutout Wednesday was down $0.75 per cwt at $347.45 while select was off $0.78 at $342.38. The choice/select spread widened to $5.07 from $5.04 with 134 loads of fabricated product and 77 loads of trimmings and grinds sold into the spot market.
The USDA-listed the weighted average wholesale price for fresh 90% lean beef as $394.96 per cwt, and 50% beef was $128.77.
The USDA said basis bids for corn from feeders in the Southern Plains were unchanged at $0.90 to $1.10 a bushel over the Mar corn contract, which settled at $4.40 1/4, down $0.00 1/2.
No live cattle contracts were tendered for delivery Wednesday.
The CME Feeder Cattle Index for the seven days ended Tuesday was $348.44 per cwt, up $0.40. This compares with Wednesday’s Jan contract settlement of $350.25, up $0.70.